Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelensky – Address to the Nation (21.02.2022)

Dear people, we and our state do not have time for long lectures on history. I will not talk about the past. I will talk about current realities and our future.

Ukraine is within its internationally recognized borders, and will remain so. Despite any statements and actions of the Russian Federation. We remain calm and confident. I want to thank all our citizens for this.

You are proving once again that Ukrainians are a smart and wise nation. And in spite of everything we keep a cool head, react calmly, carefully, like an adult. we are ready for anything. But there is no reason for you to have a sleepless night.

Tonight we held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council. Ukraine qualifies the latest actions of the Russian Federation as a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state.

All responsibility for these decisions are made by Russia’s political leadership. Recognition of the independence of the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions mean Russia’s unilateral withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, and them ignoring decisions within Normandy format. It undermines peaceful efforts and destroys existing negotiation formats. With today’s and, possibly, tomorrow’s decisions, Russia is legalizing its troops, which have actually been in the occupied territories of Donbas since 2014.

A country that has been supporting the war for 8 years cannot maintain peace as it claims. I discussed the situation with French President Macron, German Chancellor Scholz, US President Biden, British Prime Minister Johnson, and European Council President Michel.

I also plan to talk with Turkish President Erdogan. What will happen next? We want peace. and we are consistent in our actions. Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affaris sent a request to the UN Security Council member states to hold immediate consultations on the basis of the Budapest Memorandum

I initiated the convening of the UN Security Council and a special meeting of the OSCE. We insist on the OSCE to prevent provocations and further escalation. An emergency convocation of the Normandy summit was also initiated.

We expect clear and effective support steps from our partners. It is very important to see now who is our true friend and partner, and who will continue to frighten the Russian Federation with words.

We are committed to political and diplomatic regulation and do not succumb to any provocations. Our borders are securely protected. a system of territorial defense was created. Our partners support us.

In accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine reserves the right for individual and collective self-defense. We can distinguish between the provocations and the offensive of the aggressor’s troops.

Truth is on our side. we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risk, you will know all about it. There is currently no reason for chaotic actions. We will do everything to make it so in the future.

We are committed to a peaceful and diplomatic path, and we will follow it. We are on our land. We are not afraid of anything or anyone. We owe nothing to anyone, and we will not give anything to anyone.

We are sure of this, because now it is not February 2014, but February 2022. Our country is different, our army is different. The only goal is peace in Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine.

Ethiopia: Abiy is not done with his nonsense

There has been no negotiation yet. This does not rule out the possibility of discussions. Negotiation is a method of identifying problem-solving options. We have been betrayed while making efforts to rebuild acknowledging that the region is a part of our country. Negotiation is the upcoming all-inclusive national consultation. The Commissioners of the newly constituted National Dialogue Commission have simply been given the task of coming up with proposals; the Ethiopian people will make the final decisions” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (22.02.2022).

Prime Minister Abiy is continuing his path of non-negotiations and non-dialogue, as it is a publicity stunt, which was similar with the releases of opposition leaders of late. The Federal Government haven’t created peace or substantial change in the Republic. There isn’t a direct attack or new operations of invading the Tigray region. No, he ceased advances, but keeps the region besieged. Where he starves it out and stops humanitarian assistance. Which favours the allies of the Prime Minister and the Prosperity Party.

The Prosperity Party and allies are the ones that is holding talks. There is no real discussion or negotiation. The whole Dialogue Commission is made up of loyal cadres of the government. These will not inflict or harm the causes. They are only there to furthering the case. This is as believable as the Ministry of Peace, which has helped the war-effort.

That’s why this is interesting:

We must be cautious not to fall prey to the enemy’s scheme. We released the prisoners for three reasons: to bring lasting peace, taking into consideration the overall situation of the prisoners, and to consolidate our victory. In a war, there is no such thing as a total triumph. When one party wins a combat while the other party is momentarily defeated, this is known as temporary victory. In turn, the defeated party would resurrect and assault. As a result, true triumph necessitates victory in the realm of peace. This decision has greatly helped Ethiopia. We must not compromise on decisions for the lasting good of the country” (Abiy, 22.02.2022).

This is really striking, as the PM and his government have said early on that the “Operation Law Enforcement” was over after a month in 2020. While the warfare is still on-going in February 2022. The months of war haven’t stopped. The advances and the front-lines might have changed, but the reality is that there is no significant “cease-fire” or agreed upon end of the war between the parties. It is a prolonged affair, which has never ended. That’s because the ENDF, EDF and Fano has all failed to contain the TDF and their allies. This has humiliated Abiy, as he thought he would have a brief and quick war to consolidate power. While having trusted allies in Bahir Dar and Asmara to back him up.

We knew the political prisoners was only let out so that the African Union and the “positivity” could be held for a brief moment. As he could bash in glory with the diaspora and the AU summit. To look grand and prestigious. While other parts of the Republic is burning on a regular basis. Where fights in Oromia, Ogaden, Afar, Amhara and Tigray is happening regularly. As well, as the usage of starvation, man-made famine and humanitarian assistance blockade, which is only hurting third party citizens who happens to live in a region.

That’s why it’s unbelievable that Abiy speaks of peace and triumphs now. As the conflict hasn’t ceased and the Federal Government haven’t one. It is only continuing the suffering and the plights of millions of civilians. While he is eating good and living good in Addis Ababa.

Abiy will not compromise with anyone. He will only bushwhack them and hoodwink the international community. This man will not create peace on the benefits of the people. No, he will only create peace, if he has ensured all consolidation of power. If it wasn’t that dire. He wouldn’t have ordered the war in the first place. That’s why we know there will be no talks or sit-downs with the stakeholders of the conflict. It will continue and the dialogue will be one-sided. Because, talking to the likes of Abiy is like talking to a wall. It is an echo-chamber of hubris and a massive ego. Which will not cease to exist or stop it’s ultimate goal to be crowned the King of the Abyssinia Empire in his life time. Peace.

Opinion: President Kiir will not surrender to an election

The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 2018 and Khartoum Declaration of Agreement Between the Parties of South Sudan of 2018. Later the parties involved also signed another agreement in the Rome Declaration of 2020. While we cannot deny the importance of the Entebbe Declaration on the Operationalization of the Arusha Agreement on the Reunification of the SPLM, which was signed and agreed upon in 2017.

We are now in 2022 and the R-ACRSS haven’t been fulfilled or implemented within the boundaries of time. The R-JMEC and stakeholders are seeing the possibilities of extending the transitional period. Which seems to make sense at this point. As the stipulations in the R-ARCSS for a free and fair election isn’t there. Neither, is all the parties or involved all in agreement on how to move forward at this point.

The SPLM/A-IG, SPLM/A-IO, R-SPLM, SSOMA, NDM and NAS. There are plenty more, but it shows the reality on the ground. The Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU). This government haven’t succeeded or been able to ensure the articles being meet in time. There been push-back and lack of concern, as the importance of holding on to power seems more important than actually implementing the R-ARCSS.

We are seeing leaders, war-lords and whatnot is moving between the main parties within the R-TGoNU as it is preparing for an election. However, I have doubts that it will even happen. If it will happen, it will be a pre-selected game-plan, where the ones involved will ensure longevity and secured victory without any shadow of a doubt. The ones who has negotiated and secured offices with perks and salaries will not back-down now. They took these offices with guns and ammo. These folks will not give way to the public will. I cannot see it now, as there is only a chosen few who might retire or give way to others. They are the noble ones and the ones who has integrity, but don’t expect a huge portion of the R-TGoNU to willingly do that now.

President Salva Kiir Mayardit seems not interested in losing power. He has run the nation by decree and orders. He decides who to appoint and who to promote. It is all within his ranks and power to do so. I cannot see him stepping down or retire as a head of state. No, he will prolong his terms and ensure “legitimacy” for his time there. If it means postponing elections and use the slowly implementation of the R-ARCSS. It is just favouring him and his allies.

The other parties also have stakes in this. They might risk losing out and they have now safe offices because of the agreements. This being SPLM/A-(IO) or SSOMA who could have valid concerns and ability in a possible election. The sentiments will spark and they have to sell policies. As they are now part of the same project and has position to regain. That might be sold, if they are running an election. That is something Kiir can trade-off, as the leverage of up-keep and retaining positions is more viable in the current regime. However, that still make it seem far-fetched to have a representative and civilian government. Since, this is the war-lords, militia leaders and former rebels who are in power now.

That’s why I doubt Kiir will offer an election very soon. He can use the R-ARCSS and hold talks with stakeholders. He can issue an extension and ensure his passing legacy as a President for Life in South Sudan. It is not like he will risk losing power or waste this opportunity. If he is in doubt or fears the loss control. Kiir will call Museveni and get help from the UPDF to cease the opposition usage of skirmishes within the Republic. That’s the sort of thing he does and it wouldn’t shock anyone.

I have doubt that Kiir will issue an election now. Unless, he will re-issue a possible selection and ensure total control of the Transitional National Assembly and Cabinet. Where he will not loose a thing and crowned King yet again. Peace.

Guinee: Front National pour la Defense de la Constitution (FNDC) – Communique No. 185 (22.02.2022)

Burkina Faso: Ministere de l’Administration Territoriale de la Decentralisation et de la Securite – Region du Sud-Ouest – Gouvernorat de Gaoua – Communique No. 002 (22.02.2022)

Algerie: Collectif des Families de Disparus en Algerie (CFDA) – L’oppression en Algerie a l’endroit des defenseur.ses des droits de l’Homme et des militant.es du Hirak seme la terreur (22.02.2022)

Ukraine: Russia has started its invasion of Eastern Ukraine

Yesterday was a unique day and it was the day that President Vladimir Putin and Separatist leaders signed agreements, as well, as acknowledging sovereignty of Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in the Donbass region. While the Russians have decreed the “peacekeeping mission” within these regions. We will see huge army movements into these parts of Ukraine. That is clear indication of what Russia planning ahead.

There is already warfare in the Donbass region, which has been going on for 8 years with the support of Moscow. The Separatists have gotten support over the years and thousands has already died in this conflict. It will only get worse now, as the Russians have sent their army and invading the region. That is what will happen now.

Putin has already taken Crimea and now is taking Donbass. So, expect Putin and his armies to push further, as they are only getting a little flack and international scrutiny. While the European powers and U.S. is planning sanctions on Russia. Well, the Russians and allies in Ukraine has ratified the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between them. Therefore, the region is now in the middle of it and getting taken close to annexation into Russia like Crimea in 2014.

What we are also seeing is that the separatist attacking the front-lines and borders within, as the Russian army is supporting them. There is also reports that the Russian has invaded and started to attack in the Kharkiv oblast and the troops are near Kharkiv or Kharkov, the second biggest city of Ukraine. Close to the border of Russia and Belgorod, which have seen troop movement of earlier this month. Now it seems to be moving forward there as well.

The Russians have not only entered the separatist regions in Donbass, but has now also entered Kharkiv region as well. That shows there is battles at the Pervomaiskaya front. If the Russians does this… it isn’t to free the regions with possible Russian affiliation, but to take control of the whole Ukrainian Republic. Which seems to be more likely, as Russia has already carved itself into it and now pursuit more.

The Russians are not respecting a sovereign and their territorial integrity, as they are continuing to take more territory, as the LPR and DPR only has parts of the regions under it’s control. While the separatists and Russian army has to go further into these to take it all. As they have already called them sovereign republics yesterday.

We are now seeing the Russian army is providing military aid and military infrastructure to the Donbass region. Therefore, this invasion was planned and expect it to only be the first draw. As Putin and his armies will further their mission. This has been planned for a long time and is now finally getting executed. The Russian army wouldn’t have surrounded the borders of Ukraine for weeks. As well… as moving troops into Belarus, which makes it possible to attack another side of the Republic too. Therefore, this was scheduled and planned ahead. It isn’t a coincidence and they are awaiting for the excuse for a total invasion.

As they are gearing in for Donbass and reported Kharkov. We can just wonder what is next, but nothing is shocking here. Since the Russian Federation and Putin doesn’t value Ukraine’s nationhood, as he dismissed that yesterday. That gives him all the “reasons” and “lies” to takeover Ukraine.

This is tragic, but the signs are all there. The war has started and the invasion has just begun. Peace.

RDC: L’Institut Congolais pour la Conservation de la Nature (ICCN) – Direction Provinciale – Rumangabo, Nord Kivu (21.02.2022)

Transformer Cadres Association Uganda: Notice of Intention to Collect Signatures for a Referendum under Article 255, 259 and 260 of the Uganda Constitution (21.02.2022)

Opinion: Sanctions will not stop Putin

The Russian Federation and President Vladimir Putin isn’t worried about economic or financial sanctions. That will not touch him the slightest. It will not hurt his political elite or the oligarchs who are partly invested and parts of the financial structure of the rest Europe. Putin knows this and his banking on it.

We should worry that the sanctions will be pointless or not hurt him. As arms embargo and other features will not be prevalent towards Russia. As it is a weapons producer and self-sufficient in some ways. It has also other forms of trade and means of getting revenue. The sanctions and financial implications will also hurt the rest of Europe, as the Gazprom and Gas is vital for the energy needs of Central Europe, which is exported from Russia. Therefore, stopping that will inflate prices and create an energy crisis there. This is why Putin has an ace up his sleeve.

Putin and his allies has planned this for some time. He wouldn’t have the signing ceremony with the separatist leaders of the Donbass regions. Neither would he have moved so much of the army towards the borders and into Belarus for no apparent reason. It was a slow waiting game for the right moment. As Putin knew it wouldn’t cost him much or very little to do so.

Yes, his condemned and the Western powers are writing statements with sort of plans to sanction Kremlin and LPR/DPR. However, this will be very futile, as the Russians has the army within Ukrainian territory and Putin doesn’t respect the nation of Ukraine as an entity. That was his speech today and it’s clear he wants to erase old “mistakes” in Eastern Europe.

Putin will not be faced with the sanctions, as he will brush it off, as he has other trading partners and agreements, which will keep the Russian federation alive and well. They has broader arrangement elsewhere and the West cannot hurt it that much. Yes, it looses some coins in the short-term, but it knows the West will return. As their gas is vital for the needs of central Europe. That’s how he has tricked the game.

That’s why the German Chancellor was such a mediocre figure in Moscow recently. He was such a softie and a lost duck. That must have given Putin hope that Europe wasn’t ready or able to find measures against him. Only Macron had some resolve, but he cannot carry the European Union and NATO on his shoulders. Therefore, Putin felt his safe and sound. He got the bargain chips and the ball is in his court.

That’s how things are looking and President Biden haven’t proven any strength or resolve. No, his been a distant outsider trying to forge a narrative. Nevertheless, he has neither acted in good faith or showed any sort of movement, which would strike fear into Putin. Putin is a seasoned leader and a well established head of state. He wasn’t in office yesterday and that’s why he has done what he could to read the room. This is preparing the war-room and the possible costs of a conflict.

Putin knew he could buy time and waste it for the adversaries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had no chances to win this. He is just being played by both sides. While he has the sovereign rights and territorial integrity of Ukraine to worry about. However, Putin knows he has little to gain or expect in the short term. As Ukraine was able to loose without much fanfare Crimea and now he hopes to repeat that. We just have to see how swiftly he will do this.

Putin hasn’t gambled and he will not fold over some coins lost. No, he will march on to his victory without any concern of the implication of the rest of the West or Eastern Europe. It is just the ideal of Putin and everyone else is just supposed to blindly follow him. Peace.