“We will work with ANC, Ford Kenya and all the other parties that want to walk this journey of bringing Kenyans together. We are going to raise the bar of leadership so that deceit, lies and conmanship do not become the equation of leadership” – DP William Ruto (23.01.2022).
We knew deep in our hearts that the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) was on shaky ground the moment it decided it’s Presidential Flag-bearer. The outfit has already by it’s technical committee decided that Stephan Kalonzo Musyoka was the guy and candidate to run. Therefore, the principals and leaders had to back-down for the Wiper Democratic Movement leader. Alas, that would shake the coalition and it’s members.
Nevertheless, today has proven why it was such a vast moment. Since two other principals are now running behind United Democratic Alliance (UDA) DP Ruto and being part of their campaign. Meaning, they are ditching the OKA and it’s alliance… this being Amani National Congress (ANC) Musalia Mudavadi and FORD-Kenya Moses Wetangula. Both of these are practically part of the Hustler Nation and the Wheelbarrow Movement ahead of the polls in 2022.
This means the ones running out of Bomas today, Kalonzo and Gideon Moi (KANU) both have to go to the drawing-board and find a new home. Since two parties and leaders has chosen a side. These two has to either join Azimo la Umoja or go “independently” into the polls. That means in near future we might see Kalonzo and Moi together with Odinga at a rally. In the grand scheme of things… that wouldn’t be shocking, as Kalonzo has already been a Special Envoy this term and could easily be part of the state machinery who is pushing for Odinga this time around.
What is striking today is that Mudavadi is rallying with UDA. The whole UDA shown up strong and don’t expect DP Ruto to be the second on the ticket this coming poll. No, there has been an agreement and arranged between the parties. Which means there are promises made and it would be profitable for both.
That’s why Mudavadi and Wetangula has banked on Ruto. That they together are stronger and can become a force to be reckon with. While I have a hard time seeing ANC or Ford-K being anything to take to bank. Neither of them has the parties nor the general support of which will make them viable everywhere. These two doesn’t even have the reach within their own communities to bring MPs or Governors on their side. Therefore, the UDA alliance is a fragile one and only is a blow for OKA.
An OKA that was already failing and with the recent choice of Kalonzo it was to easy to speak of ramifications and fall-outs as a result of it. Now it’s not hyperbolic, but a clear realization why Mudavadi didn’t show-up to the Technical Committee meeting. As he has been scheming and planning the whole thing with Ruto. They are now comrades and Wetangula is in on it too.
The Tanga Tanga brigade can celebrate the earthquake today, as OKA is on it’s knees and soon shelved like CORD or NASA. All of these are forgotten coalition, which wouldn’t last or becoming winning formulas in an election.
Now the UDA and Hustler Nation has strengthen it’s cause. Just like Odinga showed strength and finesse, when the governors joined his Azimo la Umoja earlier this month. This is all political play and a way of showing relevance in each others backyards. Therefore, Ruto just got two parties for a bargain. He got their leaders and by doing so… he humiliated OKA and the ones falling behind there.
Mudavadi in a way mocked OKA too, by inviting and showing who he works with. As he has already found a home. He has now launched himself and with his party together with his new allies. The same can be said by Wetangula too. These two have now shown their cards and their way forward.
Now, Kalonzo, Moi and the other OKA leftovers has to show their cards. They have to show their loyalty and where they stand. As OKA is practically over… and on life-support. Unless, Moi and Kalonzo will play like big-shots… which they are not and everyone knows that.
Mudavadi outsmarted them today… but his not a kingpin and never have been. Mudavadi has been looking for shelter and a home. Now Ruto has promised him a safe-haven and a safe passage. However, by the scheme of things… it is only getting more dire and the test is in the coming months.
Now its the moments of confetti and salutes. However… the true campaigns and rallies are ahead. The tear-gas and the hurdles are ahead of them. There will be ramifications and reactions to this. Ruto is the winner today. He got a price and a token under his belt. However, it is not a grand price, but a nice possession, nevertheless.. and he has all rights to be giddy.
We just have to wonder… what it did cost and what promises that has been made. Because, that bill has to paid and in full. Peace.