Sudan: United Nations (UN) – Memorandum – Interaction with defacto authorities (05.11.2021)

Rwanda Defence Force (RDF): RDF not involved in M23 attack in DRC (09.11.2021)

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigrai Scholars (GSTS) – Call to Ethiopian Scholars and Civil Society Organzations to Intervene and Facilitate All-Inclusive National Dialogue and Peaceful Political Process in Ethiopia (09.11.2021)

Ethiopia: TDF-OLA continues to advance [towards Debre Birhan]

The Tigray Defence Force (TDF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is speculated to have achieved plenty of miles and territory, as they closing in on the strategical town of Debre Birhan, as that is only 132,7 kilo-meters away from Addis Ababa or Finfinne.

In the second front in Afar Region there is reports that the TDF is fighting remaining Ethiopia National Defence Force and Afar Regional Special Forces aroundn the town of Mille, which is the main road to Djibouti. While the Debre Birhan is closing off another feeder road and vital route to the capital. This will be besieging the capital, in manners of which the state has done the Tigray region for months. With this in mind, the TDF-OLA is directly blocking the A1/A2. That something the Republic cannot afford in the long run.

The ENDF and the government can still get supplies by air and to Bole International Airport. However, it is closing in as pockets of territories are taken not only in Oromia, but in other regions as well. On the 7th November the TDF already took control of Mekane Selam and by doing so. They cut off the Dessie – Bahir Dar route. Therefore, the routes are becoming closed in and the Republic is feeling the damage.

We should expect the government and ENDF to be in panic mode, if this happens. There is already reports of possible internet blockade. It is reported that social media is being slowed down. The state is excusing leaks of a national exams, but this is happening as the TDF-OLA alliance is moving forward.

This will hurt the Prosperity Party and their allies, which isn’t able to stagnate the momentum. Neither, the international community or the African Union Envoy who just visited Mekelle to talk peace with Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). These talks are clearly not enough. The U.S. Department asking for the TDF-OLA to ceasefire isn’t listened to either. Not strange that these hasn’t adhered to that, as the siege of Tigray haven’t ceased and neither has state given any positive signals in concerns with it’s hostilities within Oromia. Therefore, both parties had no grounds to trust the government or it’s allies in this matter.

What is striking is that the TDF-OLA alliance, tactics and strategy is working. Even when the ENDF is importing equipment on the daily. Have weapons specialists flown in the to the Republic. Also, the extravagant purchases of drones and other military equipment. The ENDF has even been forced to force conscription and taking away youths from areas, which the government still controls. In the middle of the night filling up buses to send youths to the front. The state is sending anyone and able bodies to the front.

If these strategic movements and these territories falls into the hands of TDF-OLA. Than the capital is closer to be encircled. The ENDF and the current government would feel the pressure. The battles and the front-line isn’t just somewhere far up north. Neither is it far away with the usage of Amhara regional special forces or the para-military group “Fano”. No, it coming close to home and where power resides.

This should be a warning to Abiy, as the shelling and artillery is over Debre Birhan anytime soon. It is just speculated and rumours of the arrival of the TDF-OLA. That wouldn’t be shocking anymore. As these two collectively is striking at targets from more than one angle. This gives them an advantage and also more flexible usage of their troops. Therefore, expect news to come and that this is soon under control of these armies.

When that happens… know that the ENDF and other Regional Special Forces might retreat or even join the TDF-OLA. Just like there been reports of Oromo Special Regional Forces leaving the Republic to fight with them.

If that happens… the fall of Addis Ababa will happen even quicker. Time will tell and if this is all true. We know the state comes with propaganda … and want the enemies to look weak. They want to look like they have control, but that is hard to believe, as the TDF-OLA is advancing. That’s why we have to follow and see what next move the armies does in the coming days. Peace.

Ethiopia: A Joint Press Release by Salsay Weyane Tigray (SaWeT), National Congress of Great Tigray (Baytona) and Tigray Independence Party (TIP) regarding the joint report by EHRC and OHCHR (08.11.2021)

RDC: Republique Democratique du Congo Forces Armes Etat-Major General – Communique de Presse (08.11.2021)

RDC: Mouvement du 23 Mars – The M23 Movement – Mise au point du M23 (08.11.2021)

Opinion: Is Kampala behind the M23 resurgency?

 

If you ever wonder, there has always been a close connection with the Uganda People’s Defence Forces and other security organizations like the Chieftain of Military Intelligence (CMI) in concern with the armed militia called “Mouvement du 23 Mars – The M23 Movement” or M23.

This militia have now attacked several of villages within the Democratic Republic of Congo and in the North Kivu province. They are supposed to move towards Goma and challenge the government, as the M23 claims it has disobeyed the “Peace Agreement of Nairobi”. Alas, who knows about that or has any clue. It seems like a fixed solution and a way to resolve the matter quickly.

We know from the past that Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and armed allies in Uganda border region have facilitated and ensured weapons for the M23. Heck, the Government of Uganda let the M23 return to Uganda after the cease-fire and previous deal. Also, back in the day, the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) was also supporting the outfit. So, it’s not like wasn’t a sole mission of Kampala, but Kigali had their stakes in it too.

Now, today as the villages are attacked in Kivu again by the M23 and they resurged from the border region of Uganda. Which is where the government allowed them to be and the let the rebels stay. The government let them in and housed them. Just like the Rwandese has done with rebels as well in the past. So, it is not like this is a one-sided arrangement in concern to insurgency in the DRC.

However, the main stay and the leaders of M23 went in peace to Uganda. Back in 2015 there was reports of a total of 1500 combatants who had fled the DRC to Rwanda and Uganda, while only a small fraction returned to the DRC. Therefore, the return today is really a spectacle, but also a tactical manoeuvre.

When we know that the Ugandan government has in the past supported with weaponry, training and a safe haven. It doesn’t take much brainpower to suspect them is behind it again. That the Ugandan government have an excuse and a reason to return to the DRC. Just so they can get rid of insurgency and insurgents. While the MONUSCO and FARDC struggles to contain it.

The Ugandan Press is claiming the Rwandese is behind it and the Rwandan Press is claiming the Ugandans are behind it. What we do know is that in the past both has had their hands in the cookie jar and eaten out of it. However, the implications now and speculations are easier to target Kampala, as the leadership and the ones fighting comes from Uganda. It is not like they could just run loose and not have some sort of military backing. They need weapons, training and ammo. That doesn’t come cheap and someone sponsored this.

M23 doesn’t just show up out of nowhere and sudden ambush inside the DRC. Someone facilitated this and made this happen. If the CMI and UPDF did this. Then they are cunning and vicious. As they plan for more bloodshed to have the ability to further extradite and export valuable resources from the region. That wouldn’t be shocking but would a decent business strategy. While using insurgency as a “mask” for the operatives taking mineral resources and other valuable commodities from the region.

The Government of Uganda (GoU) needs new revenue and bring some profits home to Kampala. So, this here seems plausible. As the state is struggling to finance itself and it needs war to gain substantial amounts of funds. The warfare in the DRC could be a valuable enterprise and the costs would be significant less, compared to the amounts invested in the militia. That’s’ why the M23 could be arranged at this time. Just to ensure supplementary budgets and other needed fixtures of the state.

It is just a way of securing more shillings and running of business. While earning money on the blood other people sacrifice elsewhere. Since, the President and his handlers in Entebbe knows what sort of profits they can gain by doing this. It is an asset and a viable operation to begin with. That’s why they hope it succeed and gives them a decent pay-off. Peace.

Sudan: Hemeti supports the second coup

“We reaffirm our full commitment to achieving the revolution’s goals of freedom, peace and justice, facilitating a dignified life for the citizen, providing basic services, forming an independent civil government without the protection of anyone, working to achieve stability and peace and taking into account the best interests of our people” (…) “We affirm our full respect for the right of young men and women to peaceful and democratic expression, demonstration and at work to protect it and guarantee it according to the law” (…) “Have come to correct the course of the popular revolution and preserve the security and stability of the country and the unity of our people and our land” (…) “after all attempts at reform failed due to a small group’s adherence to control of the country, their concern for the struggle for power and their negligence. towards the demands of the people expressed in their glorious revolution “– General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemeti

The silence has been deafening, but the timing of the statement last night is really evident of where the second in command are. The Commander of Rapid Support Force or Janjaweed. The militia of terror and anguish of Darfur. Who has been committed to crimes and violence against unarmed civilians! That is who Hemeti is and what he does.

This man is willing to kill and brutalize people to get ahead. He is willing to trade weapons and sell resources for his own benefit. This is a army man and a calculated man as well. He doesn’t weigh in without hoping for benefits for himself.

Gen. Dagalo wouldn’t risk his spot or his office over a second coup d’etat. No, this man is supporting Al-Burhan because he hopes for a handsome pay-off. That his soldiers and brigades can silence the revolution and hope some puppets can be installed in their place. So, they can listen to Hemeti and Al-Burhan. That is what he wants and not defiant civilian leaders.

Hemeti would rather silence the Unions and the Forces of Freedom and Change Declaration (FFC). If he would get his wish, everyone would just be silent and move ahead. Because this is beneficial for him and his men. The armed officials are getting all power and ceasing it. They are hoping for some willing pawn to jump into their stead and forget the Juba Declaration. Forget the negotiations and the parties of which the Transitional Military Council have betrayed this October 2021. Yes, Al-Burhan and Hemeti has betrayed them and tried to take all power… that is all there is to say.

They can promise the world now and that they will respect the revolution, but we know that is a lie. They were never interested in it in the first place. They just hijacked it with the Sovereign Council and temporary measures, but when the push comes to shove, he takes it all. That’s what both Al-Burhan and Hemeti wants to have it all and have no accountability for it.

These two military commanders don’t want to face consequences or repercussions for the lives they have taken. No, these two wants to live on and let bygones be bygones. They want to get off the hook and hope people have faith in their actions. That’s why they are fixing themselves up and wants to cease power.

If they believed in the principals of the Juba Declaration or the Revolution. They wouldn’t use force to silence, kill and arrest the civilians who is resisting the military takeover. No, the General would be on the barricades and on the front-line with the protesters. Alas, he don’t value it and hope he can get away with it. That’s not shocking but shows how he hopes this will dies down and he can reign supreme again. He was able to get off the hook before and get more power. The General hopes for the same in 2021, as he did in 2019. This man is a coning, and nobody should be in awe that he does this now. Peace.

Sudan: Khartoum State Resistance Committees Coordination – Press Release (08.11.2021)