“The youth of Tigray is perishing like leaves. Knowing it is defeated, it is being led by one who does not have a clear vision or plan. It should surrender today to the Ethiopian National Defence Force, to the special forces, to the militias and to the people” (…) “The enemy has been defeated. We scored an unthinkable victory with the eastern command in one day… Now in the west we will repeat this victory” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (From footage released on 30th November 2021).
On the 17th November 2020 after about two weeks of conflict and civil war in the “Law Enforcement Operation”. The man high on power and brief successive victories proclaimed to the world, that the Tigray conflict was in it’s “final phase”.
“The three-day deadline for the Tigray regional special forces and militia to hand themselves over to national defence forces instead of being a tool for the greedy junta has expired. Those Tigray special forces and militia who used the three-day deadline are appreciated, Since the deadline has been completed, in the coming days the final law enforcement activities will be done” (Abiy, 17.11.2020).
Now a year later on the 30th November 2021. The same man coming with similar threats. There been plenty of offensives and now a ‘counteroffensive’. The ENDF and allies has used all of their means to win the war. They have used all tactics and deployed all sinister means to gain advantage. This is everything from weaponizing humanitarian assistance, blockage of utilities, communications and whatever the Federal Government deemed fit. Therefore, the PM cannot think people will believe his stories now.
The PM did state again on the 26th November 2020 that it was the “final phase” and ending of the conflict. However, we know perfectly well that didn’t happen and the threats was useless. The PM and his allies didn’t have the knowledge or the strategic thinking to think differently. As the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) restructured and started warfare in a different manner of which the state underestimated. That is why they are on the advancing end and the ENDF is trying to regain lost territory, as it has lost 10,000 soldiers only defending the Afar region over the recent days. This is the results of the civil-war and the burden Abiy has put on his own people.
The PM is doing like he did last year asking the TDF and its allies to surrender last year in November. When the TDF and allies in encircling Addis Ababa. Why would they do it now? When they could have done it … when Mekelle was bombed and their territory was controlled by the Tripartite Alliance. Nevertheless, this PM isn’t that bright or smart to figure that one out.
He rather sounds boost-full and having it all in order. As the “survival campaign” and Nationwide State of Emergency isn’t regaining quickly enough territory or weakening his adversaries. Clearly, the TDF-OLA union has ensured the warfare to turn the tide. As they taking territory and planning joint manoeuvrers. That was a luxury the Federal Government had with ENDF, EDF, Fano and Special Forces all combating one enemy. Now this has become much more hectic and with several of Liberation Armies to beat.
The ‘counteroffensive’ and the publicity stunt of having the PM on the frontline must be a golden opportunity of the FDRE. However, it is also showing it’s weakness. As they are supposed to need the manpower of the man who should sit in the situation room and get all intelligence from the front. He should navigate together with the generals and commanders. Find the best strategy and not just look at the sky, the moon and the dust. Figuring out from which hill he should cross or what sort of trick he should pick out of his sleeve. Nevertheless, that is where we are and he thinks he can repeat itself and it will work wonders.
The fools that is joining his war and many are dying on the front. That’s why the 10,000 revelations shows what price it has cost the FDRE to regain territory in the Afar region alone. Therefore, the PM maybe needs to boost his ego and show some finesse.
Still, that is a lot too ask this late in the game. There is little wiggle room and the PM uses whatever he has at this disposal. We know the TDF-OLA alliance has hurt his prospects. We know they been able to capture lot’s of prisoners of war. That has been proven and displayed. Nevertheless, that has never ended the war.
The PM can be in public and create a lot of theatre, but everyone knows that this doesn’t win him the war. It is just prolonged and the agony continues. As the people are starving, struggling and the pain is delivered to the door-steps of even more people. This isn’t only happening in the Tigray region, which have gotten the blunt force of the state, but also in Amhara, Afar and Oromia. Where there is various degrees of suffering, because of the conflict. It all has to be addressed and the pain, suffering and the adherent needs are growing. As the state and FDRE vilifies the UN and everyone delivering “wheat aid”. Therefore, this isn’t becoming better by the day, but much worse. As we cannot know the true extent or what sort of levels of devastation in the Republic.
Time will tell… but Abiy needs new tricks and new measures. Since, re-issuing the same sort of statements. Only shows that his not winning, but slowly losing. Peace.