Opinion: Debretsion Gebremichael is preparing for a transition…

The future political path of the country will be decided in deliberative stage in which all concerned will participate. After considering options, we will play our share in implementing the best alternative. We believe the transition will be orderly with a collectively reached agreement. The details will be revealed during deliberations and in process. It is a decision time. Everyone should play their share” – Dr. Debretsion Gebremichael (Video Message, 27.10.2021).

We know that the Tigray region is being besieged. The Tripartite Alliance have targeted and closed the borders into the region. The Ethiopian National Defence Force Air-Force have been delivering air-strikes for days now in both Mekelle and elsewhere too.

The state and it’s allies have created a man-made famine, open starvation and blocked humanitarian aid to get in. The state has stopped the basic necessities and it is endangering civilians. This has been done deliberate for months … and the the areas surrounding the Tigray region is getting similar treatment too now. So, the state is punishing everyone, because one party decided not to become a part of the Prosperity Party and stay as one unit.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) President Debretsion Gebremichael is delivering this statement and message close to the one year mark of the civil-war. The Tigray Defence Force has entered Afar region and the Amhara region. While parts of the Tigray region is still under control of the Tripartite Alliance. They are using their force there. Alas, the warfare is far from over. The wars are happening on the front-lines outside Tigray now.

The ENDF and it’s allies has started another big push and ‘final’ offensive against it in Mid-October. Alas, this doesn’t seem to stop the TDF or their allies. They have been able to keep the front-line and even being able to operate in the nearby areas of where they had entered in the past. Therefore, the ENDF and Tripartite Alliance haven’t won or crushed the TDF, even when they have had this offensive for about 2 weeks with little to no results.

That’s maybe why the TPLF President says these things now. To prove a point and from a point of strength. As his armies and allies are not weakening, but able to achieve results in the midsts of horrific hardships. The state and it’s allies is unforgiving and easily uses the air-force and authorities to get advantages. Nevertheless, the risks are still high.

Debretsion Gebremichael is really thinking ahead here. As the TDF and others has joined forces with him. The TDF/OLA isn’t the only one, but several of other liberation armies/militias has joined this effort. It is not like his alone and on an island. No, he has allies, just like the state does have as well. Though, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali risk of issuing this war has backfired. Instead of saving his reputation and getting a quick victory, which he promised last year. He has instead gotten a prolonged war where his only losing slow.

Prime Minister Abiy must be furious that the clip went online and become the talk of the town. Because, that stops the impression of his power and abilities in office. Since Debretsion shows his influence and his reach. That’s why his message is being dismissed and his location being mocked. The state apparatus is even trying to claim his place of footage is from a United Nations container. Just the continued vilification of the humanitarian assistance, which the state wants to block by any means. There is no stop … in doing that and this was another instance of that.

That he speaks of a transition of power is an early step. Some might say it is hubris, but the TDF and his party has survived a brutal beating. The same has the whole population of the Tigray region for months. So, that’s maybe why to sell a little bit of hope. As the stagnation, but ability to hold areas outside the region proves what they willing to do. We don’t know how much strength and manpower the TDF has in comparison to the Tripartite Alliance. Alas, it is only with time we will see what the TDF is able to do. As well, as all their allies as well. The Tripartite Alliance haven’t proven their supremacy and greatness since they fled Mekelle in June 2021. Therefore, he feels superior and that they can move forward yet again.

This war is slow process, but have huge ramifications. That is shown both in Mekelle and in Addis Ababa. As the PM and his government isn’t as sought after or respected as it used to be. The state finances and costly war is becoming a huge problem for Abiy. Not only the loss of equipments, ammunition and prisoners of war. The state itself has lost reputation and the IMF cannot even state the future of the Republic either. That is warning of how dire things has become and the state would never foreseen this when they issued the “Operation Law Enforcement” in November 2020. Now, the time is up…

Debretsion Gebremichael message can either be seen as hubris or as a warning shot. It is hard to speculate what the outcome will be. Whatever it is… the war is issued and prolonged. It doesn’t seem to stop and we can just be in sorrow of how many innocent lives that is taken in this spoils of war. Peace.

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