Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali isn’t creating a stable region of the Horn of Africa. The Prosperity Party and their policies of consolidating power in the Republic have backfired. Now, with every month and the struggles of Addis Ababa is getting clear.
The PM has not only lost the Tigray region. He has no power there and the people will not back any cronies or yes-men from the Federal Government there. As the warfare, the genocidal affairs and the massacres by allies of the PM will linger on there forever. His name and his “Law Enforcement Operation” hasn’t been a commando to get rid of the TPLF Central Executive Committee or TPLF High Ranking Members. The leadership of Tigray still persist and that’s why the PM has lost all leverage there.
The PM has no support in Oromia. He could “win” the region in the election, because no one was really allowed to challenge the PP or the PM in general. The Oromo leadership has become an alliance between the Oromo Liberation Front/Army (OLF/A) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC). The OLF/OLA is waging war and trying to take control of woredas in the Oromia region as we speak.
In Gambela region there is a new Gambela Liberation Front (GLF) is a result of the actions of the PP and the PM. They are active and become a unit because of what the PP has done in the Gambela region. Therefore, he is losing support here as well.
In Somali Region (Ogaden) and Afar Region there are several of things going against the Federal Government. Not only is the targeting of civilians creating massacres since 2018 and re-do that strategy now in 2021. The Afar Regional Special Forces creating a massacre in Ogaden. Therefore, the militant Issa-Somali is starting to target towns in Afar Region in retaliation. These ethnic clashes is created by the policies and choices made by the Addis leadership. The TDF is in Afar region, but getting help of Issa-Somali to block the railway line to Djibouti and also closing roads to Djibouti as well.
What is striking with Ogaden is that the Oganden National Liberation Front (ONLF) haven’t acted on the power-vacuum in the region. As the Regional Special Forces was deployed to the frontline together with Liyu Police Forces too. Still, there have been no information and they seems to be peaceful in the middle of everything that is happening in the republic currently.
Not to forget the Afar Liberation Front who is also fighting in the region as well. They are working together with the TDF, but that has not been verified. What is clear is that the ALF could cause damage to the allies of the PM.
When we see all of this, as well as the battle on various of fronts towards the Tigray Defence Force. Which is continuing towards Gondar in Amhara region. The Federal Government, the PM and PP is failing on all fronts. They are sending untrained youths from various of regions, after the Regional Special Forces, Republican Guards and the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) have all lost to the TDF.
The PM’s gamble have backfired. He has lost the the troops, the soldiers and now sending conscripted youth without training to the frontline. Prime Minister Abiy now has not only the TDF, which has destroyed him totally. The PM also have to cover the fronts of Afar, Ogaden and in Gambela as well.
He also have the TDF in his rear-view, as well as all the other ones who is creating chaos. It is not only on one front and one party that his going against. Now it has turned to various of regions, different armed groups who has their mandates and motives to create more conflict, as well as the porous and fickle security situation has changed because of the prolonged conflict with the TDF.
PM Abiy have now ensured that the Republic is burning. That is happening all across it. The state have had the monopoly of violence and issued that in Oromia, Ogaden, Tigray or in Benishangul gumuz. That has been acts of injustice and impunity. The PM and PP did that to secure power and now that’s all hitting home.
The PM doesn’t only have the TDF to destroy, he has the Issa-Somali, Afar Liberation Front and others who are working against the PP and the PM himself. They are going after the regime and their allies. Therefore, this is showing how dire things are. Peace.