Ethiopia: Abiy has lost Tigray for forever

Today on the 28th June 2021 the warfare of the Tripartite Alliance seems lost. It seems dwindling, even as they are leaving Mekelle and fleeing to Afar region. Mekelle has been freed from the alliance and the Interim Government have fled as well.

Tigray Defence Force was able to kick the Tripartite Alliance out after months of guerrilla warfare. The national army, Eritrean Army and Amhara Para-Military Group Fano We know the conflict has costed them a fortune, as they had to raid the banks of Mekelle and UNICEF offices. The state did their efforts and also had a communications blackout over the weekend. However, they have not prevailed.

Today is a day of reckoning for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and President Isaias Afewerki. They both have to take responsibility for this failed warfare. The amount of atrocities, massacres, looting and annexation of land from Amhara. The whole war has caused so much damage and hurt.

This will be damaging for a generation to come. There are so many people who lost their loved ones. Who has seen family members die. Woman who has been raped and seeing their homes destroyed. Villages burned and their homestead depleted. While the armies, the leaders and such have bashed in glory and talked of victory.

The leadership of Addis Ababa and Asmara failed in Tigray. They both have not only lost the war on the battlefield, but the whole enterprise was built on lies. The deception and the utter destruction that followed. The lies of no civilian casualties, the lies of what demographic the refugees are and the lie of the preparation ahead of the war in November 2020. We all know this now.

The state and its authorities has tried to kept this under wraps and controlled the narrative. They have worked hard to be supreme and be the big-men. However, they now got to cut their losses. The armies are running and they cannot fight back. Even when they are starving the population. Blocking aid convoys from entering and having steady road-blocks. When they are blocking and jamming all communications. Still, they are losing…

That must hurt the pride of Abiy. He has today lost the war he himself ordered and was supposed to win by later November 2020. The PM claimed victory and even said all TPLF leadership should just give-up and desert their mission. However, he has today lost it and it only begs to question.

What is his next move?

That is hard to know… but a cease-fire only means the guns are silenced. That isn’t a real peace. A real peace is when the agreement between the parties are written and these are in dialogue. That is something the PM haven’t been willing too and he has forged his narrative of the wrongdoings of the TPLF/TDF. They have just defended their region and between the Federal Republic at their game.

That is humiliating. The Law Enforcement Operation has clearly not worked well. A cease-fire is to re-tool and restructure itself. That is to buy time and find new ways of entertaining war. Therefore, the announcement today. Isn’t a sign of total stop, but waiting the next turn.

That is what the Tigray region should be aware of. The ones who started this. Is still in power and have the army at his disposal. Has allies who are willing to battle and to destroy their region at will. They are just taking it easy for now.

Abiy isn’t over and as easy he could order the war. He could also end it. However, the aftermath of it and the results of it will now come out. The devastations, the numbers and the amount of damage. The death toll, the starving civilians and the refugees.

All of this counts and he cannot run away from it. The PM and his allies all have to stand tall on this. They we’re willing to wage war and they should pay consequences for doing so. When it is so easy to pull the trigger. They should clearly pay the ramifications for it too.

That the TDF defended itself and used guerrilla tactics is within reason. If they have done any war-crimes. They should answer for that too. Just like the Federal Government. However, the weight of power and influence is on Addis Ababa. They are the big-men and the ones who got the suits from across at their door-steps. Therefore, they got to take the blunt force of responsibility hereafter.

Abiy is a warlord and now he got pay his respects to the dead. The ones that died on the alter of his ego. Peace.

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