Now that the Electoral Commission and the authorities are moving ahead. The state is steam-rolling ahead… and they are awaiting to be legitimized again. That is just the bleak reality of the rigged election and the aftermath of the 14th January 2021 polls. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and President Museveni is just forging this ahead. Just like nothing happened and washing their hands of dirt. In a manner, which all the blood, deprivations and atrocities within the Elections Road Map doesn’t matter anymore. The objective is fixed and they can now bash glory again.
However, there are opposition parties that now has to choose how they move ahead. The Opposition parties and the ones who has stakes in the Republic. They got to make a stance. The People Power Movement and National Unity Platform (NUP) have the biggest stakes aside from the NRM in the 11th Parliament. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) comes in at second. The Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) got a better verdict now than last time and Democratic Party (DP) is weakened.
The NUP and FDC have to decide how they want to play now. If they wanted to be United Forces for Change (UFC). If they want to challenge the government heads-on. The dilemma will be… do they take the easy coins in government or do they challenge the whole election?
If this is a revolution. Will the NUP and Bobi Wine take a stand and not accept being the Leaders of the Opposition. Will the newly minted opposition dare to challenge and also walk-out on the political elite after a big victory for such a new party?
That is the risks of Bobi Wine. He can be compromised and be tainted by the 11th Parliament. As his strides and bargains there will not be a sign of defiance or #WeAreRemovingaDictator, but more compromise. Compromise is a usual tool of politics and a way for to parties to get to a middle ground. However, doing that here… then Museveni is getting a lot of leverage with very little cost him. The price of being honourable and getting titles. The NUP has more to loose and also risks questioning their movement.
That is just the grand scheme of things. Just like the FDC did betray their defiance by accepting titles and positions within the 10th Parliament. The NUP is now under the same scrutiny. They can trade-off their hard-liner stance and be just another political party.
Bobi Wine and his party has sold a dream. That dream could easily turn to nightmare. Nobody expected to be fulfilled in one go. There is to many enablers and systems created to ensure longevity for Museveni. That is why Bobi Wine was doomed to loose. Nevertheless, he still shows progress and popularity with the amount of MPs. Still, that’s where the question now lays.
What sort of plan ahead does Bobi Wine has? What will Bobi Wine do? He got to prove that not only the election is rigged, but that they are prolonging the efforts to get a peaceful transition from Museveni. This is where he needs to go back to the drawing board. Even look at history and what Besigye have done. To reflect and also get enlighten on how to manoeuvrer on the burning rocks around him.
Bobi Wine have followed the ideal of Besigye and created his “Awakening Movement”. Bobi Wine has also created a network of activists that works together and is coordinated. That is the two first steps of creating a transition.
What Bobi Wine needs to next is to work together to “disempower and break down the junta”. That’s done with actions of defiance and not following the rules, which the NRM is making. That is risky, but done together can weak the system and halt the possible government from governing. This is done with demonstrations, riots and just stop to support companies associated with or owned by the government.
The fourth of Besigye is getting the public servants, soldiers and law enforcement involved in struggle. Get them involved and becoming supporters of the cause. In such a manner, that they cannot act upon orders and silence the opposition who is working to weakening the state. That is risky one, as this might end up with more jail-time and pre-emptive arrests. However, there is a need to enlighten and ensure the civil servants are loyal to the idea of a state and not just the party.
The fifth and last point of Besigye is to work with CSOs, NGOs and other civil society formations to join in the activities. That they are working together in activities to weaken the state. They will participate in the defiance and disempower of the junta. That is what he says and could be guidelines for Bobi Wine to continue.
Because at this point. Bobi Wine has choices to make. So, does all part of the NUP. This party can choose which way it wants to go. The state will use force. It will continue to be violent and detain people on political grounds. The state could easily kill civilians associated with the NUP. So, these folks needs to reparations and answers. The dead need to accounted for and these lives should matter. That is why just a few seats in a bloated Parliament shouldn’t be enough.
Not when the machinery and the functions of the state is still prepared to destroy and assault everything Bobi Wine stands for. That is why he can either follow the advice of Besigye. Advice he talked about on the 11th July 2017 and should be relevant today.
As a leader he can follow the steps of Besigye, but he can elevate where he left off. As there is proof of support and tiredness of this regime. Bobi Wine can push ahead. It will continue to cost, but the political gambit will be heroic. The risks he has already taken and the price he has already paid, says a lot. Therefore, the man knows the stakes. Bobi Wine is following the steps of Besigye. As he is house-arrested, party besieged by law enforcement and no middle ground for him to walk.
That is why he can decide to concede or accept the verdict. Take the seats and continue to use his influence or continue on the revolutionary path. This isn’t an easy decision. So many risks, so many variables and possible losses. However, he can either run out of options and see his folk get compromised in Parliament or continue a rocky road.
That is what Bobi Wine has to decide. It is not easy. Bobi Wine has inspired and will continue to do so regardless. Nevertheless, he can either persist to push the boundaries or take it slow. Taking it slow is risky as well. Since then he will see what the envelopes and titles does to his comrades. Bobi Wine will see what the NUP becomes when it get established and part of the process.
This is why he needs to decide where to go now. That choice is his and his only. However, the man needs to decide. His advisors and team needs to be objective and think ahead. Not only think for the short-con, but for the long-con. Because, that is what the state does and follow the program to make Museveni President for Life. Peace.