The National Resistance Movement and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni promised a fundamental change. It wasn’t a mere change of guards, but a new government built on other ideals and ethos. Which was supposed to be in vast contrast to previous rulers of the Republic. Alas, the President should start a new era on the 26th January 1986.
However, there has been plenty of water under the bridge since late January 1986. There been so many opportunities to make a difference and changes within the Republic. However, the NRM and the President has squandered that. The President could have become a legend, he could have been seen as a liberator and someone who would always ring in a positive light. Nevertheless, that isn’t the case anymore.
The reasons for his bush-war and for his liberation in the 1980s is the same systemic issues lingering with his reign. The electoral rigging and the hectic gerrymandering. The elite from one tribe and the military leadership, which is most of the ethnic group that the President trust and from the same region. All these issues was reasons for the bush-war and he has done the same.
The same is the elitist eating of the public coffers and misuse of grand corruption. Where a small infringed group can access all perks and allowances. While the general public is only getting scraps. The state is all in the vision of the President and his closest allies. This system isn’t for the grand public, but for the chosen ones.
This is why the lingering problems that caused the bush-war is now in effect. Where there is one law for the ruling regime and another one for the opposition. The NRM is the ones who get can away with murder, while the opposition struggles to gather and hold public meetings. This is the reality within the republic.
When someone has this amassed power and can micro-manage from his State House. When he got lodges, farms and estates across the Republic. It is like we know he cannot live the wealth and the accounts behind. The President has so many schemes and therefore, he just needs to stay in power a while longer. Just to ensure he gets to profit from the office a while longer.
The President and his allies has changed the Constitution several of times just to ensure he can run. Abolishing term limits and the age limit. The state has made laws, which favours him and his fellow comrades. This is all the ideal patronage around the Presidency and it just continues to push it to the world.
This is why the President cannot transfer power. He will loose everything, his family will not have a foothold and the possible investigations into his reign might issue some time and even cost his achievements. The President could possibly be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and answer for War-Crimes elsewhere like in the Democratic Republic of Congo or in Rwanda for that matter. This President have been connected and implicated in shady deals elsewhere.
So, with the knowledge of all of this. I have a hard time seeing him stepping down in 2021. It is more likely of another rigged election with fierce use of armed forces and media blackout. Where all opposition is behind bars and his inaugurated with fellow dictator buddies. Because, that is what is awaiting 2021. There will be no fanfare of opposition victory. If 2016 wasn’t a sign of that. Then nothing is…
Museveni will not transfer power. Yoweri has no reason or profits himself to do so. He will lose everything and he cannot afford doing that. No matter how he has destroyed his legacy and how he lied to get to power.
He promised liberation and promised to step down before. However, his still here and has no intention of leaving. If he can he will rule until his last breath. It is not a just act of the old man, but that is all he has. Also, if the public doesn’t love him. He doesn’t care as long as the army, security organizations and the police is obeying his command. As long as he have the guns on his side. The President knows you cannot do anything about it.
The “High Above” and the Self-Styled President for Life will linger-on. It would be revolutionary for him to transfer power. However, I doubt it will ever happen. The only way he will transfer power, if his soul has moved on and gone into second life. Because, at this present moment and as long as his breathing. I don’t see any play that suggest him resigning or give way. Unless, there is a military coup that topples him. Nevertheless, that isn’t a peaceful transfer of power, but continuing the long line of successors coming to power by the gun.
So, you see? Museveni will not leave. He will be there forever, unless a miracle happens, which is no where in sight. That is why its called a miracle too. Since there is no prewarning to those sort of events. Until then, there is no one who has a chance to see peaceful transfer of power. Peace.