Today, the Electoral Commission came with a list of 19 candidates to the Presidency in 2021. The vital information there. Is not only all the parties, which doesn’t challenge the Presidency, but also the main opponents.
I will easily dismiss independent candidate Henry Tumukunde, as the NRMer he is and what he has worked on all his life. The only way he can be viable and make sense. Is if he starts to offer internal secrets and undermine the NRM with a force, which nobody has seen in the past. Alas, he wants to appointed somewhere post-election. Therefore, don’t expect him to renegade and show the truth of the ruling regime.
I also doesn’t see the independent candidates like Pastor Fred Mwesigye and Pastor Joseph Kabuleta. Kabuleta knows how to go viral online and trigger the authorities. However, he doesn’t have the political standing or ability to gain enough traction for his cause. Mwesigye will be a punchline and only use this as PR for his church.
Former Presidential Candidate Joseph Elton John Mabirizi can this time possibly take himself more serious and not be joker. He can maybe even sound more serious, but his candidacy is still a stage-dive landing bad. Former Reality Star Nancy Linda Kalembe will also not make a difference. She might get someone new interested in politics, but she will not do much in her favour.
The three candidates that makes sense in this. That has some traction of the 18 who is not Museveni. Are Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Mugisha Muntu Gregg of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) and Patrick Oboi Amuriat of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). These three are the ones who are viable and have a candidacy worth a damn.
Bobi Wine is the one the state is fearing. The one the state is blocking and creating hardships for. He is the one to look at and know that he will trigger the state. No matter what he does, the NRM copies and use means to be relevant there. The Candidacy of Bobi Wine is the biggest one right now. That is why, even Justice Forum (JEEMA) have endorsed him as well.
The second after him is Mugisha Muntu (ANT) a man who has created his own party after leaving FDC. The New Formation and the party, which will reflect his moderate and meagre moves for change. Where he will negotiate and softly create a difference. This man is gaining popularity, but not as stratospheric as Bobi Wine. Muntu wanted to Besigye and now he has his first chance. However, he didn’t equate a Bobi Wine in his way.
The third one is POA of the FDC. The man of the school of Besigye. The man who doesn’t want to be rated in the same regard as Besigye. Well, when your the first one after him. Everything going to be rated after him. You are going after the big-shot and the 4 time candidate. No matter what you do. You will be questioned and people will discuss you in comparison to Besigye. POA has a mountain to walk, he is a slow-burner, but he needs a PR Team making him edible. Since, he doesn’t have the standing that Muntu nor Bobi Wine has.
Bobi Wine have everything to win here. He is aiming at the top and has a good team behind him. The NUP has shown this and the People Power Movement are growing. That is viable by just seeing the mere popularity. This is why the NUP is attacked like it is.
The FDC and POA has to get there. The FDC is still targeted and create a fuzz, but not at the levels of Bobi Wine right now. Bobi Wine is getting the Besigye treatment this time around. That is why POA needs to make himself more viable and show his face. He has internally been able to navigate and get the candidacy. However, it will be totally different in the outside world. This man has to fight with all parts to achieve something.
Muntu is so peaceful and careful. He doesn’t ruffle feathers. That is why the Muntu campaign isn’t feared by the NRM. No reason to be afraid of ANT. ANT isn’t big, neither massive or popular. They have been able to table candidates and getting traction. However, nobody with sense fears Muntu. Muntu will compromise himself and his candidacy, if he gets the option to do so. This is why he left defiance… and created his own team.
There three candidates of the opposition that will matter. These are Bobi Wine, POA and Muntu. The rest will only be hot a minute in the headlines, but forgotten quickly. If they will even get there or if not only a byline in the Daily Monitor or in the New Vision. That is the reality of it all.
There is three to watch out for and ONE who is above the two others. Bobi Wine has the grasp of things, but it depends if he plays this out perfectly. Because, he will be targeted and aimed at from everywhere. That is the truth. The two others… might want to say its differently, but deep in their hearts. They know they play second fiddle to Bobi Wine too. Peace.