Opinion: Will the Tigray be pushed to secede from the Federation?

This week the House of Federations has done two things to the Regional Government of Tigray as an response to September 2020 elections. They have both ceded co-operation with the Regional Government and also stopped the subsidiary of the budgets of the state. This is clearly amping up the tensions. As much, as the Tigray have also ceased co-operation with the House of Representatives too. Therefore, a real stalemate have appeared.

The Federal Government in Addis Ababa is playing with high stakes. As they cannot ambush every region of the Republic. The Prosperity Party and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is trying to bush-whack the ones being at helm for over two decades. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) knows all the tricks and hurdles ahead. The TPLF isn’t a weak party. They are former oppressors of the Republic and knows all the steps ahead.

It seems like the PP and PM Abiy haven’t captured or understood who they are dealing with. It is like he don’t know what game his playing. Just reacting and trying to play catch-up. That is why the Tigray doesn’t seemed shocked or unprepared for it. This is why they went ahead with an election. When the Federal Government had suspended it and even ensured that their own mandate would cease before the next polls.

The Federal Government have taken all consolidated the powers. They are using the boots on the grounds, political prisoners and intimidation to incite power within the ranks of the public. The Prosperity Party is coming with soldiers and with bracelets. The state is arresting, torturing and killing its dissidents at a rate that are worse and beyond the TPLF. The TPLF which had much more years in power, but still Abiy have succeeded to have a worst record in the short span his been power.

Still with that betrayal of reforms and moving forward. The Prime Minister and the Representatives in Addis is trying to outsmart Mekelle. However, they are only ensuring and giving reasons for the Tigray to secede from the Federation. Instead of being beside the opposition and showing reason. The Federal Government is creating all the good arguments to cease and rebuke the central power.

The 1995 Constitution article 39 (4) is clear on this and is a protocol for how to do it. The TPLF should know this by heart. So, if the Legislative Council of the Nation (Tigray) votes for a Referendum with a margin of two-thirds majority. Then, the Federal Government has to organize a election within 3 years. After that, if a majority supported the referendum. It is at that point the Federal Government have to transfer its powers to the Council of the Nation.

Those things are far from this very moment. However, the more the stakes are set. The cards are played and the deck is set. The game is ready for it. The House of Federation is clearly not interested in the citizens of Tigray. Neither, are they interested in doing any favours to the TPLF. The Party that rejected the Prosperity Party. Therefore, everything that has happen since is a sort of retribution. As they didn’t want to be a part of the Abiy project. Whatever that is, except of consolidating all power around “his highness”.

I was never blind to the ills of the TPLF and its reign. However, the PP and Abiy isn’t better. They are using the same means and at such scale. The citizens of Oromia and Ogaden is feeling the blunt force of it. There is only a fake-peace. Where the arms are aimed at the public. That cannot last forever. Neither, can a stalemate with Tigray last forever. There will be reactions and actions made.

Some speaks of fear of civil war. That would have been unleashed, because the Federal Government didn’t respect its constitution and neither did its duty. Alas, the fallacy is all in Addis and in the hands of Abiy. He has the loyalty and the powers from his unelected representatives. They can make a difference.

However, will they do that? Would they accept the vote from the TPLF for succession and secede from the Federation?

I really don’t know, but the state of affairs isn’t becoming better. It is becoming worse. That is handled wrong and not negotiating between the parties. Instead, they are using their means against each other. To see who gets humiliated first and gives way. That is something can last for long and prolong the juxtaposition they have put themselves in. The quagmire created by the Federal Government and TPLF. Which they both can solve, but is there a will and way?

I hope and pray for less guns, less bloodshed and loss of lives. There has already been enough loss of lives because of ignorance, arrogance and hunger for power. However, how much more needs to be lost over the throne and ability to rule supreme in Addis? I don’t know, but something got to give. Peace.

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