It is a reason why 4 times candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye is a Plan B ahead of the 2021 elections. That is because Besigye knows, Museveni knows and everyone else knows the score. The cards of the deck is already stacked against Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine. Whatever way through the polls will not work. It is just going through the motions and doing what everyone before he has done.
Bobi Wine does what Ssessemogerere have done, what Besigye have done, what Otunnu have done and what Mao did once. They have all gone through this, but they will enter this game empty handed. Bobi Wine has similar swagger and popularity as Besigye had ahead of 2016 and in 2011. However, that didn’t amount to much. Why?
The President and his team will rig the living hell out of it. The nomination as Presidential Flag-Bearer of NUP was a formality. Another milestone, but not a victory march. The incumbent will become the winner again. Not because of his popularity, his policies or his track-record. No, because the whole system is built to let him win by all means. Have the majority everywhere it means something. Ensure his people get appointed and the self-serving regime continues.
That is why a speech and message like this from Bobi Wine is sort of pointless:
“Today, I feel very humbled for having been successfully nominated to carry the flag for the National Unity Platform for the position of President of Uganda in the upcoming election. Since nominations closed without another candidate expressing interest, I am delighted by the confidence placed in me by all of you distinguished Members of NUP. As I did pledge, I am confident that I will not disappoint you. We shall bring the crown of victory, by the grace of God. While today is a day to celebrate, it places before us all a challenge to renew our commitment to the struggle and begin working tooth and nail to conclude this mission. We know that the challenges that lie ahead of us are enormous. The regime is getting more vicious and desperate. They are determined to do anything and everything to keep themselves in power against the will of the people. But we must be stronger and more determined to overcome any challenges and redeem our country. Victory is in sight ladies and gentlemen. Let’s get to work” (Robert Kyagulanyi, 21.08.2020).
It is nice he shows humility, but this was expected and was the only natural position. This wasn’t for Zaake or anyone else. The Presidential Flag-Bearer was for him and him only. The crown of victory will not come through the polls.
Bobi Wine has a strong spirit and has a vision for the future. Wants to be a symbol and a liberator from the dictatorship. That is all fine, but his just going through the motions like everyone has done since 1996. There is no difference here and every 5 years, there been someone promising to beat the NRM.
It has been someone who has come up and shown some flex. Been able to gain some supporters and risen to the occasion, but hasn’t stopped the regime from using force or excessive rigging. They have come on top by using all means and ensured the state continues the status quo.
With that in mind, Bobi Wine better configure something else. Especially if he want to win. He will not win in the polls. The results are already in the negative. He will loose. It is just a matter of how much and the NRM apologists will claim he doesn’t have the organization, the support in rural districts of Karamoja and Acholi. That he doesn’t have support of the people in Rwenzori. Also, that they don’t know about him around Mount Elgon. There will always be something.
Therefore, the ideals of Bobi Wine is good and his determination is positive. However, if he runs like everyone before him. Then he will go nowhere. Yes, he has built a party and a movement. But that alone isn’t enough and Bobi Wine should know that.
Unless, he just want to continue this election cycle and become the leader of the opposition in the 11th Parliament. Peace.