Opinion: Museveni can sleepwalk into the elections [as the opposition only aim at their own]

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) who are not caring about the guidelines or the regulations for COVID-19 or Coronavirus. Who are busy scheduling all activities ahead of the General Elections of 2021. also settling the final flag-bearers of the party. Which sometimes are the same-old, same-old and dozens of sole candidates. The NRM looks solid ahead of the elections.

At this point, as the President Museveni is busy preparing for this 8th Term since 1986. The man, the legend, the dictator and the President for Life. The supposed Fountain of Honour and His Excellency can just sleep. He can be lazy, he can squander around and even have a few scandals on his hands.

The opposition are busy scheming tearing each other apart. The Uganda People’s Congress is the NRM-Light at this point. The big-man Akena and his wife is both in the sphere of the President. They have traded perks and agreement with the NRM .The UPC is only viable in small pockets and doesn’t have the organization nor trust in the public. Because of the trade-off that Akena, Son-of-Obote did in the last election cycle.

Democratic Party have been raided, taken by everyone. Norbert Mao should by crying at home this weekend. The day of betrayal was this week and he lost his MPs. He got none of the big-men and the party is weakened. There is little left and the promise in the months ahead can’t be much. Not like they can muster such voices and cadres over night. To take the space, which these MPs left.

Forum for Democratic Change are also weakened, also many questions about where they are turning. The ghost of Besigye. While Lukwago only created questions of protocol and validity of the nomination process. No matter what it does, it has lost plenty of the faction belonging to Muntu. The pragmatic part of the FDC has left and the defiance of Besigye lingers on. We can wonder what it will do and how it will become the biggest opposition party again. It needs to show flex and muscle ahead. Needs to drop heavy hitters of flag-bearers and show it isn’t just a punchline.

One of the newcomers, who has shown new strength is Muntu and his Alliance of National Transformation (ANT). Most of this has come by weakening the FDC. The ones who was supporters and allies of Muntu is the ones that left the FDC. There are very few independents who has come, except for Kassiano Wadri. Who is also a former FDC, but had left the party already. Muntu got some good people around him, but he seems like his trying to do the same thing he always does. Saying the right things, but not really challenging status quo.

The second newcomer is the People Power Movement and the National Unity Platform. Where Bobi Wine have really scored big and creating headlines. A man who is getting support from all parties and independents. He raided the DP party and gotten several of MPs standing for the NUP. Right now the momentum of the opposition is in his hands. He even got the nudge of the DP Block and the Justice forum for the Presidency. However, JEEMA will field own MPs and not do that under the NUP flag. Showing, there are a balance of sorts and there will be honest competition.

The DP is losing big, FDC is weakened and creating uncertainty, as the biggest party and the one historically challenging the President. Museveni must be giddy that the FDC is lingering like this. Instead of having a steady line and showing resilience. The up-hill battle that persist must be tiring and that’s why its showing some fatigue.

ANT and NUP are revitalized, but they are still not that big or organized like the FDC. Bobi Wine has momentum, but he needs support from everywhere to get the final push. He got friends all around, but with purges like recently in the DP: There might be fear that does happen elsewhere too.

The NRM should be joyful that the opposition looks like this. The message is distorted and the opposition is busy seeing whose deflecting and whose staying. Not to talk about finding out who is the flag-bearer and who gets the nominations. There are so much in-fighting.

There is more talk about what’s happening between the parties. The new and the old. If the old parties have the push or if they are out of steam. We can wonder ourselves. If this is all meal-ticket politics or actual battle for change.

Museveni is lucky with this. They are not pin-point at his failures, at him tanking the economy, taking up more loans and continuing his impunity in power. He can walk free of that. Only touched a small amount of time. Instead of being the target, the one people are aiming for and proving his recklessness. That is what they should do. Expose and show the intolerant and the state sponsored brutality, which is the image of this state.

Except he gets away with that. As he visits factories, radio stations and hold speeches on the regular. He walks and travels at ease like a bird. While the others are in cages and they are not even allowed to sing. Peace.

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