The opposition in the Republic will not win at this point in time. It isn’t because of their lack of swagger and viable candidates. This is simply, because of the status quo and the whole state machinery is working against them. There is no chance that the President and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) will give way. That’s not happening anytime soon.
The Forum for Democratic Change and National Unity Platform (People Power) parties are the most high regarded opposition. The FDC has the history, while NUP and People Power are the new renegades. This is the Kizza Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine coming to full force as challengers to Museveni. They will gain attention and get popular. However, in the grand scheme things this will not matter. These two might win the election, might even be hugely admired by the population. However, the machinery will not let Museveni loose.
That is why the rigging will close the doors for the opposition. It is reason why I don’t mention Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), Mugisha Muntu and Democratic Party Norbert Mao. Neither is Uganda People’s Congress, James Akena or Justice Forum Asuman Basalirwa. Or whoever is running the Uganda Federal Alliance, Farmers Party or People’s Progressive Party. These lastly mentioned have enough to get an MP elected into Parliament. Not even thinking of challenging the throne.
Muntu and Mao might want to be in the big-league, but we both know they don’t have it. Neither does Akena, he is cahoots with the regime with a deal. So, when your dealing directly with NRM. You cannot anticipate the brother will do anything about it.
This is why in reality it is a battle for the FDC and NUP. These two are the parties that has to challenge and show force towards the NRM. Not, that through the ballots will make a difference at this point. The Electoral Commission, the NRM is busy scheming and preparing the results. We know who will win and that is all in the cards. To think otherwise is either naive or foolish.
The NRM will conquer, they will use all means. There is a “scientific” elections going on. That is used on the opposition, which is stopped from campaigning. While the NRM candidates are doing so, either in secret or by using government programs as a shield to allow them to meet people. That they will use the state as tool to not only campaign, but also rig the elections. This is why the opposition has no chance.
NUP and FDC knows this. They will show flex, but will they dwell on the inevitable. The ones whose moderate and pragmatic, will only benefit a small group. While the big-men of the opposition got to stand up in the midst of oppression and hardships. Knowingly they will loose, but it is a matter of how much they willing to loose in the end. Not because of lack of popularity or having backing in the public.
However, because the NRM and the state uses all means. Every single piece of intimidation and scaring tactics. Also, the use of arbitrary arrests and other means to stop the public from gatherings and organizing. Except, if you have suction or a anointed by the Movement. Then you can set-up tents, set up rallies and meetings in churches. However, the opposition is not allowed to do the same. This is another proof of the whole charade, which is going on into the polls in 2021.
If your thinking this going to be free and fair. Forget about. The state is embedded. The Police is more into politics, than actually catching thieves.
This is all just a game and we all know who is going to win. Not because the public loves him, neither that its justified. However, that is how this is played out. We can act like its not, but then I would be disingenuous. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be fooled and just play along, but call out the nonsense as it is. Peace.