Opinion: Four possible outcomes with Alpha Conde after the referendum
The two term President Alpha Conde of Guinea knows this perfectly well. His citizens knows and the world knows this. There is only three real outcomes now, that he has the legal ability to run for two more terms. The old man, the 82 year old executive and head of state. Has only a few narrow paths ahead of himself.
First Option: Dying in office.
He can by all means, because we don’t know his life-span or trajectory of breathing. When saying that, we don’t know when he will die or if he will die in power. That means serving as the head of state until his last breath. That means dying as a President and than after that, someone else get to become the 6th President of Guinea. Which, means he would be third one to die in power, since liberator and dictator Sekou Toure and dictator Lasana Conte.
Second Option: Loose power by a coup
The second option, which we know is possible, but need someone to use force. Is that someone inside the army starts a coup d’etat and uses the means of mutiny to bring him down. That means the army won’t serve the President, but instead will serve the leader they had chosen. That is brutal ending of a Presidency, but not a new in Guinea. As Moussa Dadis Camara did his bidding after the death of Conte in 2009, but he didn’t contest in the “first free elections” in 2010, as he was in exile in Burkina Faso. The junta-leader who didn’t get to linger in power and neither did his deputy Konate who only got a short term stint before the aforementioned elections.
Third option: Public revolution to overpower him
The opposition, civil society and activists could overpower him. They could over time shutdown all parts of government. Stop all trading, all collection of taxes and stop normalcy. So, that the state functions wouldn’t exists. That they barricaded the streets. Silenced the media and controlled the airwaves. They would dethrone Conde and his party. That by popular demand and by the acts of civil disobedience or defiance. However, that would cost and the demonstrations would be so co-ordinated, that the security forces had to give up and give way.
Fourth Option: Rule with an Iron-Fist
This last option is the most likely one. The President is following suit of Toure and Conte. He is killing people to be able to run two more terms. Even as his growing old and are in advanced age. Surely, he wants to be like Mugabe and others. Who ruled until their cronies took over. Instead of giving way to succession.
Alpha Conde doesn’t want to learn from history. His just a stubborn old man, who wants to distort his legacy, wants to be remembered as a big-man who couldn’t let go and who kept power by any means. His not alone in this, all arms of government is supporting this and they are making way for him.
Conde is just following what previous leaders has done. Not that he follows Camara or Konate, but Camara was shot and Konate ruled temporarily. While instead he follows Toure and Conte. Doing the same thing. Just in our time. Now, having a referendum to legitimize his rule. Surely, the elections will be rigged. There will be social media black-outs, there will oppression and the opposition will get punished. That is the ordinary playbook of guys like Conde.
Unless one of the options happens. He will just rule. Indefinitely. Since he has the throne, the package and the glory. He will not give way or give that up. His enjoy the powers and the perks. Therefore, it is all his and the spoils are his too. That is why his not letting go. Peace.