Sudan: Dimming light of hope for a possible civilian rule..
Yesterday, the news was broken that the Transitional Military Council and the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) had agreed to peace deal. This deal certainly is a made in way, that gives way for both parties, but surely betray a lot of the ideals that the FFC had and the public had in the demonstrations. Maybe, the FFC soften it up and trying to sell it out. In hope for a negotiated and secured future, even putting trust in the TMC.
The reason why I say that is that the deal per now is a 3 years and 3 months of temporary leadership. Where it will first get 6 months to secure the peace. Than as a part of these 6 month, the Military will lead the new Council for 21 months, while the Civilian leadership will after this get a period of 18 months.
The Sovereign Council, which it has been named, will consist of 5 people from the FFC and 5 members from the military, as well as one civilian member agreed upon by both parties. Making it a Sovereign Council of 11. There will be a Legislative Council and a Council of Ministers, which will be formed after the new structure of government.
There will now be a joint technical committee made by African Union lawyers and the mediators of Ethiopia to finalize this agreement, as it will be finished by Saturday. Certainly, this is all a win for the military, as they will be by the table and no just co-exist with the civilian rule. They will have a say and possible have one man more than the FFC. This meaning, the FFC and the civilian will still be at the mercy of the army.
That is why this is possible a hard bargain, if the TMC have done this to buy time. They have really bought a lot for very little, as they seems like reasonable, while the foreigners are praising the deal. While the TMC don’t have to pay the price for the violence or the killings of demonstrators. Neither, the arrests nor challenged on the silence of the internet or electricity elsewhere. The TMC have gotten very much and legitimacy by doing very little. Even as these negotiations has been going on, the men of civilian leadership have been arrested and intimidated. Clearly, that has not cost the TMC anything and they have even gotten a sweet deal.
Even today, the day after the power agreement in Rabak, White Nile State, the Rapid Support Force (RSF) used their trucks on civilians, who after prayers went around chanting and celebrating in public places. Then the RSF came with 5 trucks and dispersed all off them. This is what the TMC does, while they are making nice to the world.
Let see if the TMC will backtrack or even try to overpower the Sovereign Council, as there are even expectations that the TMC will get the First President of the Council in question. This will surely avoid possible bloodshed, but if the TMC doesn’t get the will. Than, the RSF might be used by the TMC again. That might be the reason why the FFC accepted this half-baked peace-deal, as they saw the stalemate as troublesome. Since, the TMC have not shown their trustworthiness of late.
Time will tell, even if they get the PR shots and the showing of the world of a declaration and peace agreement tomorrow. At this point, I am not sure if this is good or bad, as time will tell if the TMC will honour the deal or not. If they will slowly try to overpower and misuse the legitimacy the Sovereign Council gives them. That is what worries me, but that is because I have a hard time trusting war-lords, as they want to grab as much as possible and uses negotiations only to buy time. Peace.