Well, I beg to question if the United Nations Security Council Arms Embargo on the Republic of South Sudan is functional enough or even good enough implemented. As there are already well known facts that a foreign force is on its soil, without the needed mandate. This being the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF). The same army known for exporting arms, training SSDF/SPLA or the government army itself.
That is why I have little faith in the Arms Embargo. Not that I don’t want to see peace and prosperity in the Republic. To the contrary, that is what I want to see, but with the War-Lords, the tensions and the postponement of implementation of the recent Peace Agreement. You can wonder if this is yet another false-flag operation. Since there are little or no movement into peaceful territory.
There been some ceasing of violence, killings and rapes, but its still there. There is still questionable attacks on IDPs and others. Therefore, the army itself and the militias are still pursuing supremacy. It is just a matter of time, before something blows up. Like it did in the last go-around when tanks started moving in the middle of Juba and Dr. Riek Machar had to flee to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
That is why I am sceptical of a renewed arms embargo, as the porous borders to Chad, Uganda and Ethiopia gives way to further import questionable arms and ammunition. As long as there is possible use of petrodollar for that. It will happen, even if we wished it otherwise. To be spent on roads, schools and hospitals. Alas, that is not the case.
We can play around with fun and games, but when IGAD, CSTAM, JMEC and AMISOM are all there, but still not able to find the way through the hurdles. There are so many organizations and people eager for the spoils. You can wonder if they are playing for themselves or for their communities. You can wonder if they really believed in this peace process or only see it again, as a temporary cease-fire. Which I am afraid it might be, because the interests and the parties involved are very slow in implementing the vital parts of the agreement. Even trying to use US Lobbyist to not pursuit it even.
That is why the UN Arms Embargo is good in theory, but not in practice. Because, it seems splendid on paper, but as long as the UPDF get a hold and get products across borders. As long as there are options from elsewhere. The unregistered arms will end up in the battlefield. Because, someone wants to profit of the hurt. Peace.