Brexit: A “No Deal” will have significant impact for the UK!
“We cannot trample upon the humanity of others without devaluing our own. The Igbo, always practical, put it concretely in their proverb Onye ji onye n’ani ji onwe ya: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down.” – Chinua Achebe
Today, the Tories dropped an short assessment of the implications of the “No Deal” Brexit. Which for many has been seen as a damaging affair. This is sort of report, that is dropped today. Isn’t scaremongering, but more a reality check to the ones whose thinking the “No Deal” is good idea.
I will quote significant parts of the report, like this: “Despite the Government’s efforts to prepare for a no deal, a no deal scenario would have a range of significant impacts for the UK”. I will come more to the significant impacts, as they are issued in the report, even as sleek as it is. Only 15 pages, but still has enough meat to hurt your hopes.
Like this: “This estimates that the UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken”. That is all a major hit on the economy, as you are shrinking nearly one tenth of the economy, if the worst estimates are hitting the economy.
Another part of hard hitting new realities is this: “In a no deal scenario, both the UK and EU would need to apply customs and excise rules and VAT to goods moving between the UK and EU, as they are currently applied to goods traded in the rest of the world. Every consignment would require a customs declaration, and so around 240,000 UK businesses that currently only trade with the EU would need to interact with customs processes for the first time, should they continue to trade with the EU”. This has been forewarned by plenty, even the likes of me, but not that it has mattered. Maybe, the buck has to get this close only a few days and weeks away. For many businesses and people struggling with movement. To recognize the costs and lack of protocol to deal with so.
Here is the impact on the food import: “One of the most visible ways in which the UK would be affected by delays in goods crossing the Channel is our food supply, 30% of which comes from the EU. Although our food supply is diverse, resilient, and sourced from a wide variety of countries, the potential disruption to trade across the Short Channel Crossings would lead to reduced availability and choice of products”. This means that vital parts of the imports and needed food are stopped, because the availability will go down. There might be shortages and even withheld, because the proper documentation and such is lacking. This should be a worry and show how this is hitting home. To make matters worse: “ In the absence of other action from Government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario. As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for a no deal scenario”. This doesn’t make it better. Only shows that the government haven’t done their job, preparing the industry or the importers who could have made sufficient preparation, as the government could have ensured this. Instead, the public is hit with higher prices and lack of certain food products.
For instance, the issues of Northern Ireland comes returning with fire and fury: “the cumulative impact from a ‘no deal’ scenario is expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer. This is because of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, including in particular its geographical position as the only part of the UK with a land border with the EU, and the current lack of an Executive in Northern Ireland. The Government has been clear that it is committed to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland in any scenario”. This shows, that the NI problem, the whole Good Friday Agreement would be played around with, as the Brexit will hit Northern Ireland. They are making hardships not only there, but for the ones across in the Irish Republic. That is what seems to be happening with the No Deal Brexit. Not only hit the economy of NI, but in general not following the promises made to that part of United Kingdom.
Seemingly done this silently: “Government has been accelerating its preparations for a no deal scenario since September, with a particular emphasis since December 2018. However, the short time remaining before 29 March 2019 does not allow Government to unilaterally mitigate the effects of no deal. Even where it can take unilateral action, the lack of preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption experienced in a no deal scenario”. Seems like they haven’t done enough or kept it low-key. The preparedness haven’t been there, if it had been, than the businesses would have been more prepared. They have clearly not kept everyone informed about their accelerating plans or assessment of a no deal.
For the ones saying the Brexit wouldn’t matter, wouldn’t cost or wouldn’t change things in a negative perspective. You were wrong. The realities of possible losses of fortunes should frighten anyone. The possible troubles of imports of foods and other vital items should also be a sign of what sort of self-created nightmare the UK have made for themselves.
The government are trying to say they are not having mud on themselves, while pushing the public into the mud. To repeat from the beginning, like the Igbo says: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down”.
Enough of the mud of a No Deal. Peace.
HM Government – ‘Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019’ Published: 26.02.2019