Brexit: A “No Deal” will be hurtful to the UK!

Surprise, Surprise, not really though, but for someone this will be insights into an open field May-Day, and we are not talking strong and stable Conservative Party government. No, we are talking May Day, as in all aboard a ship sailing in stormy waters without any significant captain into the abyss. Theresa May, if she goes for the No-Deal with the European Union, she is risking a lot and will not gain much for the Kingdom, except for keeping the Brexiteers on her side and if that is worth it is another bargain.

Today, the European Commission published ‘Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019’, which is various amount of document saying what will happen, other than the notices of withdrawal, which they have made for all types industries and stakeholders within the Union. Today, they have unleashed documents showing possible outcomes if the negotiations fails.

What is most striking was ‘Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement’, where the arch nemesis of possible soft transition from being a member state to become a third country to Union appear. The results are devastating at least and at best a big blow to everyone who thought it would be genuine good idea to do it in that way.

First assessment as a third country, the EU Laws Cease to apply in the United Kingdom, which is cool in itself and gives, added freedom as a sovereign. The rocks starts to hit the boat, when the second assessment hits, that is “Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union”. Meaning, there are no plan or any legal framework for how to take of or, if the UK citizens in the EU has to leave or the EU citizens has to leave as well. This is putting many lives of expats into limbo in the EU, but also in the UK.

The Third assessment by the EU concerning a no deal is: “The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports”. Therefore, it is not like this will frictionless either, the EU will with all means put up a hard-border with checkpoints, to secure the transit of goods, it will be like in the past and the duty on goods will appear. The goods will be going through a massive check compared today and prolong the travel-time of the goods going into the Union. In addition, it will also be more costly, be more time consuming and add costs to the consumers, as the taxes on the products will come in the aftermath too.

The Fourth assessment: “Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration”. This is yet another blowback, as the financial businesses and banking industry, will be left behind, not only the goods transiting to the Union, but all business will be left with WTO rules and tariffs as a third country, they will not have specialized agreements or securing trade between the Union and UK. This will surely hit industry, financial inclusion and all other cross-border businesses there are today between the parties, this will surely be costly and make it less accessible for Union Companies to access UK and vice versa.

The fifth assessment: “Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country”. This is implying that the UK will have to configure their deals with Union and will come as a third country into negotiations, as they are outside and will not have benefits of previous membership. This meaning that they will come to Brussels as an outsider. They are really left with nothing and will start fresh negotiations without any pre-empty strikes or significant advantage, as they are not involved internally within the Union or based on the principals of the Union as whole.

The sixth assessment: “EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected”. This is showing the first cuts of funding and spending directly as a third country, as the Union funding and grants dries up. Therefore, the programs and the sudden closure of these will hit the UK. The collective spending on UK will stop and this will be costly for the UK. The UK will also not pay into these funds as a Member State, but will lose vital parts by the end of the membership.

Therefore, nothing good comes out of the no-deal. No securities of the citizens, goods will hectic and time consuming, the borders will be hard and the transit will take more time, the WTO laws put into effect and the trade regulations of free movement without tariffs will be gone, also trade in general across borders will be stifled. The final negotiations will be in another narrative, than today as the measures will be for a third country and not former member. The last issue that funding will cease, as much as the legal framework of the Union will stop too. There are little good news in this, other than becoming a sovereign, but all alone, which loose the benefits of today and have to pay a lot to gain anything positive in the future. Which is all but uncertain, the EU puts barriers, but as their protocol for a third country, the Tories cannot pick and mix. Even as they are putting legislation in, who knows how this will hit.

But this should be a reality check for those who says “No-Deal” is a no problem, because the EU certainly have protocols they will follow and the consequences are dire. Peace.

Burundi: OLUCOME – Portant Sur la Paurete Extreme des Familles Jusqu’a la Hausse du Taux de Prevalence de la Malnutrition chez les Enfants (19.07.2018)

NRM Caucus Reportedly Plans to revise Exercise Duty tomorrow on Mobile Money, but not on Social Media!

Earlier in the day suddenly without any forewarning, the Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah sent at the message of postponement of the plenary session from today the 18th July 2018 unto the 19th July 2018. This was not expected, but the 10th Parliament haven’t been business as usual.

The reason came later, as the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Caucus suddenly was summoned to the State House today. This is all of the NRM Members of Parliament, which means the majority of the parliament. As the oppositions and independents are a minority. All of these MPs spent the whole day at the State House. Surely, they we’re made sure to follow the President line on the matter.

This was a meeting on the revision of the newly Exercise Duty, which was put into effect on the 1st July 2018. NTV Uganda reported: “Its expected that the caucus will support the cabinet decision of 0.5% tax on withdrawals, the same position they will support on the floor of parliament” (NTV Uganda, 18.07.2018). NBS TV reported: “According to the Government Chief Whip Ruth Nankabirwa, the meeting is intended to reconcile the caucus position on the two taxes. However, some of the NRM legislators who voted against the age limit bill have been blocked from attending the meeting” (NBS Television, 18.07.2018).

The ones not allowed to attend with his royal highness, as they have already proven dissenting voices last year, are these NRM MPs: James Acidiri, Monica Amoding, Norah Bigirwa, Johnson Muyanja Senyonga, Everlyn Chemutai, Hellen Kahunde, Justine Khainza, Gaffa Mbwatekamwa and Henry Kibalya. So these we’re barred from entering the NRM Caucus today. That proves the ironies of the NRM.

The Resistance Movement, has issues with rebels, even as the Movement was forged out of a rebellion. The 1986s of the world is a rare breed. Musevenism must be the most head-up-in-the-ass and lack of soul-searching.

So, if these people doesn’t follow party line tomorrow, everyone should understand. Therefore, the expectation is that the NRM are voting for only one of the third taxes on the Mobile Money. That being only 0,5% on Withdrawal, take away the 1% on receiving, transactions and withdrawals, which it is today. However, there is no change with the Social Media Tax or the OTT Tax of 200 shillings per day. The NRM has no plan of scratching that, they just want to weaken the blow on the consumer and users of the transactions of the money through the Mobile Service.

We can really see, how foolish the NRM Party have become and they all have to bow down for the majesty at the State House. Museveni have to get them in accord.

If the NRM things this was a smooth way… they are wrong, if the NRM things this a way of proving force; They are all wrong. The NRM deserves no credit, they pursuit the taxes on demand by the majesty, they levied it and didn’t due diligence on the taxes either. They we’re just following the possible revenue streams without thinking consequences. The NRM will sell this as a victory, but really it is poor performance. From a ruling regime and ruling party, that is rotten to its core.

If there was any party understanding rebels, this is one of them and they don’t, they are just blindly following Museveni and doing it without consideration of the implications doing so. It makes them look foolish. Peace.

Somalia Partnership Forum – Communique (17.07.2018)

 

Zimbabwe Electoral Commission: Update on Poll Preparations (18.07.2018)

Brexit: Vote Leave is now fined, but the Vote Leave/BeLeave Campaign was murky at best!

You would think high-ranking officials, Members of Parliament and other dignitaries like Lords would be careful about campaign laws before the Referendum in 2016. These Brexit elections has really shown how shoddy British politics can be. Especially, when the Tories own MPs are mishandling and misusing the public trust. This being Vote Leave and BeLeave, who at one point shared offices, while using Cambridge Analytica (CA) and Aggregate IQ (AIQ) for collecting public data to hit the electorate. They even have collected same program from the get-go and only had different heads as leaders. While Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings ran Vote Leave, BeLeave was run by Darren Grimes. However, the Vote Leave team had massive suction with the politicians. As proven by their committee lists. See under!

Vote Leave Campaign Committee:

Rt Hon Michael Gove MP (Co-Convener)

Rt Hon Gisela Stuart MP (Co-Convener)

Matthew Elliott (Chief Executive)

Dominic Cummings (Campaign Director)

Steve Baker MP

Ian Davidson

Nigel Dodds MP

Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP

Rt Hon Frank Field MP

Lord Forsyth

Rt Hon Liam Fox MP

Rt Hon Chris Grayling MP

Dan Hannan MEP

Boris Johnson MP

Paul Keetch

Lord Lawson

Andrea Leadsom MP

John Longworth

Lord Owen

Rt Hon Priti Patel MP

Dominic Raab MP

Graham Stringer MP

Rt Hon Theresa Villiers MP

Rt Hon John Whittingdale MP

(These names are copied directly from the Vote Leave Page: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/campaign.html).

That the mix-match of both organizations funding and operations, shows the disgraceful attempt to trick electorate for a purpose. What is worse is the level of high ranking officials, even cabinet members, whose been in the Campaign Committee of the Vote Leave, that was in-directly and working closely.

That the Electoral Commission are finding not only breaches of economic fashion, but also into others shows what they have attempted to do. This should not be a shadow of doubt. You know they have done some serious errors and misuse of electoral laws, when the EC are transferring their findings to London Metropolitan Police while filing finds to the campaigners two years after the effect. This proves the dire need for reform and change, as these campaigners misused the public trust and tricked the population.

Fair Vote report it like this: “The whistleblower evidence suggests Vote Leave coordinated their work with BeLeave and AIQ, the company closely linked to now disgraced Cambridge Analytica. BeLeave team members sought approval for activities, BeLeave team members and AIQ staff worked from Vote Leave headquarters and BeLeave team members took part in Vote Leave campaigning activities”. The Whistleblower being Shamir Sanni, who worked within the campaigns in 2016. Therefore, the proof of the manner of operations, isn’t only the breeches of funding and capacity these organizations did, but the deliberate activity to use different campaigns and organizations under one roof to spread the message. As well, as the use of AIQ and Cambridge Analytica. However, this sort of allegations and whistleblowing was not important in the case documents and report from the EC delivered yesterday, which is mind-blowing.

This sort of thing is insulting, that they did this deliberately and used the public trust. Not only with spending, but being so murky with their campaigns, that they are using two fronts, one with politicians and another supposed to be grass-root, but clearly controlled by the big-one. This is all a play of guards.

The fine from the Electoral Commission is bad enough, but the idea itself and that the these politicians have been apart of this sort of operations is making it worse. That they have the nerve to do this ploy and think they can get away it. This should really make the British blood boil over of anger and dismay, that the people could be fooled like this.

Hopefully the Metropolitan Police can take it further and also use the whistleblowers like Shamir Sanni and Christopher Wylie to uncover certain truths. So that the organizations and people behind this can answer for their crimes. Not only pay a mediocre fine and get scotch-free. Peace.

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Uganda Law Society notice ‘ Re: Update on Issues Relating to the Notice from the Ministry of Lands, Housing & Urban Development’ (17.07.2018)