“Who shot him? I asked.
The grey man scratched the back of his neck and said: Somebody with a gun.”
― Dashiell Hammett
“Pres Kiir asks national parliament to amend constitution & extend his term for another 3 years without elections, Kiir’s term in office is due to expire by August. South Sudan has never had any presidential elections ever since becoming an independent nation in 2011” (Juba Daily News, 03.07.2018).
Color me not surprised, let me say that there is plenty of ammunition and awaiting someone hitting the target. In the middle of the bulls-eye. I expect the bullets to sharply hit the target and leave nothing to chance. That the so-called end of term President Salva Kiir Mayardiit to step down, I would never expect that to happen.
That the man taking over after Dr. John Garang fatal assassination in August 2005. The man that took over from the Supreme Leader and the Rebel leader who ushered in his presence at all. That Kiir would give up his leadership and his administration, now? No, that wouldn’t happen and there is no will to see that. A man that has been running the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) since 2011. That he would step is far-fetched.
The only way Kiir is going out is by the bullet or grenade, some kind of fatal “accident”, where someone planted weapons and technical difficulties, which leads to his demise. This sort of leader doesn’t just step down, they get either taken out or by a rare luck of coincidence a coup d’etat, which happens to be bloodless.
That there is news that Kiir isn’t stepping down, should be expected. It is expected to feel wet while raining. It happens to be connected that when it rains, raindrops contains water and that make you feel humid. In the same regard Kiir is just doing what is expected to do. It is not like the TGoNU or any part of SPLA/M is questioning his powers. No, nobody has the balls or the rank to question the man.
If you do, your a rebel and have to go to the bush. You have to make your political and military outfit. Just like Gen. Paul Malong, Dr. Riek Machar or anyone else, who has rebelled against Kiir. No one questions the man who rules by decree. No one has the achievements or the ability to takeover from Kiir.
If they said so, they would be rebels and be outcast, they could end up as outlaws and they would displease the almighty. And no one wants to make the almighty bitter or mad, then they know they will feel his retribution. That is self-destruction and usually a fools move.
So we shouldn’t expect any one to carry the mantle of Garang or Kiir anytime soon. Kiir has just been ruling for 13 years, we should at least expect a decade or two more. Kiir wants to rule for life and has no plans to step down and give way. He rather put bullets through someones dome, than actually make anyone else rule in the Republic. Therefore, expect the SPLA/M or TGoNU to let Kiir rule indefinitely.
Kiir isn’t going anywhere… He has no plan to do so, neither does the SPLA/M, therefore, anything else is futile. We are speaking 2018 and up to 2021, than he has been in charge for a decade of South Sudan, but also of SPLM/A since 2005. That is 16 years and close to Garang. Therefore, not expect that 2021 are the final nail in the coffin. It will not be that easy, he will be there until something unfortunate happens.
A man of hte sword, dies by the sword. Peace.