Opinion: Did Al-Bashir win today? – Seems like the Nasir Rebellion worked out in his favor!
Today, the release of the Points of Framework Agreement of 25th June 2018 was released. Key sentences from the agreement between Transitional Government of National Unity(TGoNU)/Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army(SPLM/A) of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) of Dr. Riek Machar with oversight of agreement of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. The sentence between these gentlemen that can be put in question is this:
“To delegate the government of Sudan to take the necessary steps towards securing oil fields in South Sudan in coordination with the Government of South Sudan, and to work on the rehabilitation of the oil fields with the view to restore previous levels of the oil production. In this context, the outstanding issues between the two sisterly countries of Sudan and South Sudan related to oil sector shall be resolved” (Points of Framework Agreement, 25.06.2018).
Did the Nasir rebellion against Dr. John Garang win did this week? Since the years has gone since Dr. Riek Machar rebelled against Garang with support of Khartoum. Now the Khartoum government clearly has one over the New Sudan and the vision of independent South Sudan. Especially if they are taking more control of the oil sector in both Republics. This is a solid victory for the Warlord of Khartoum. He has solidified his balance and his terms, without doing much of late. His partner and friend Machar has served him a victory. The Nasir Fraction has given way and made sure that support of SPLM/A-IO, the rebellion that started in Nasir in 28th August 1991. That means the battle and support of Al-Bashir was worth it for Machar.
That Kiir and SPLM/A should feel fooled, they should as they we’re battling for independence and control of the oil reserves, but if the agreement is ratified. Than the Khartoum still will have control and the issues of the past will resurface. This is like the past has hit Juba again. The New Sudan has been outsmarted and the plans of interference and using proxy militias has worked for Al-Bashir. The Kiir government are really tarnishing the ideas the of Dr. Garang if he follows these provisions and honors these words. Then the New Sudan is slowing dying, as they are still noble creatures being told what to earn and how much to get by the Khartoum regime.
That this wasn’t what South Sudan fought for, when they fought for secession from Khartoum. They didn’t sign agreements of separation to give securities and the valuable oil be controlled by Al-Bashir. He is getting his will and the Nasir Rebellion has succeeded today.
Especially if the partners are following this or even thinking of implementing this. Certainly, this is disrespectful to long battle for freedom from Khartoum. That the Warlords has possibly traded away the thing of the most value, the oil. The revenue will again be in control from afar.
This is a victory for Khartoum and a loss for Juba. Certainly looks like it to me. The South Sudanese might gotten a cease-fire, but with these provisions. It is surely costly and loss of independence after all. Peace.