Mogadishu Stand-Off: Jawari resigned, but did PM Khaire win?

Today, seems like a small victory for Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and the silent President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo. The Victory is that after weeks and nearly a month of political stand-off between the gentlemen, the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari. What is suspicious, is that it is resolved after millions of dollars coming from a Private Plane from United Arab Emirates landed in Mogadishu yesterday. It seems so fitting, that the ones behind the most controversial army base in Somaliland, and also the DP Port in Berbera, Somaliland. Suddenly, comes like Santa Clause to Mogadishu.

24 hours later, a stand-off between two parties are settled, while “investigations” into the money transaction continues. I am not saying people are bought-off, but it is seemingly so. To the RFI English Radio, Minister for Constitutional Affairs Abdurahman Hosh Jibril has said after law, the new Speaker has to be elected within 15 days. This would a sign of change or more control by the President and Prime Minister. It has already been reported that Farmaajo had tried to get Jawari to resign.

The Prime Minister has on the other hand, ordered a full lock-down of Mogadishu, sent Danab Force to the Parliament and also used Bancroft Mercenaries there. Therefore, the ones in the Executive Branch and highest positions has used fear to install the ones they want to have. While we can question the money of UAE yesterday, the UAE themselves saying it was money for salaries of the Somali National Army. Also coming out, is that the Military Base in Puntland from the UAE will be used as a launching pad for military activity in Yemen. Clearly, the internal in-fighting, has external consequences.

This clear interfering in Somali national is clear and they are trying to pay it off and in this instance, it has worked. Since the Speaker Jawari had to resign after long days of stand-offs and misfires. We now know that the Executive Branch is trying to steer the whole Parliament. They not guiding, but trying to steer the wheels directly. This is the initial part of this activity, they don’t want someone whose thinking for themselves as Speaker. They want a loyal puppet for the PM and the President. Why else go this far to get rid of him?

The PM Kheire and President Farmaajo, wouldn’t have this much time and come with such retaliations against a man, if there wasn’t something in it for them. To think otherwise is a bit naive, you don’t send the Danab Force to the Parliament, because you love or care about Parliamentary Procedures. You do it to send a signal and show your power. You don’t use American Mercenaries on the streets around to show grace and mercy, but install even more fear. That is what the PM has done and to think otherwise, is still naive.

That there are more than what reflects in the water, that is clear. What we do know is that there are reasons for this. If it is Soma Oil and their dealings, if it is UAE and their dealings. If it is that the Speaker wouldn’t follow the directions of the PM. That might be true, but what this has shown is how weak the President is and how powerful the PM is. The PM is the power actor behind it all, he was the one who raised the stakes. Also, because the Speaker and his group of MPs put a “no confidence” on the PM as well. Certainly, that will not be tabled. Neither the motion on Jawari.

But, even as this is a small victory for Khaire and Farmaajo, it isn’t really winning anything. They have lost face, their transgression has been proved and their lack of process is proven. Their missions and their acts are now in the open. There aren’t enough American drones to get rid of enemies of the ones who wants power. That should the PM and President know, but seemingly, they don’t.

Jawari is now out, but the struggle for supremacy is far from over. The Lower House still needs someone to lead it and stand behind the protocol and rules of the Parliament. That cannot be swept under the rug, but the PM and President want their man there.

This is not a real victory, it is a loss and that is evident. What is next is inevitable, that someone who can follow orders from the PM and President will become the Speaker. But if that will make the situation better, I doubt it. It will just get more tense and more of the ones who was behind Jawari will feel disfranchised. Unless, the PM tried to buy them-off too. Time will tell. Peace.

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