MinBane

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Coup in Mogadishu Part II: Was the action today from AMISOM a redeployment or a takeover of the Parliament?

Yesterday’s stand-off in the Parliament as the two tabled ‘no confidence’ votes transpired into the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire decision to send the Special Guard to the Parliament to prove his power to the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. Today, The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sent troops to the Parliament to settle the stand-off of yesterday, if these we’re the orders of the Force Commander Lieutenant General Osman Noor Soubagleh or somebody else is hard to know.

But the political squabble and the use of military force to settle the score cannot continue. This transpiring efforts will only undermine the state and the means of the Federal Government of Somalia. That is not a show of strength, when the PM orders the Special Guards to the Parliament, neither is it show of strength, when the Peacekeepers has to occupy the National Assembly. We all know that is a bad sign ahead. No matter what they call the action today, if it a redeployment or a takeover. Yesterday, was a vicious act to spike fear in the mind of Jawari, even if I doubt it would do that to him,

We can wonder where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo has been, why he hasn’t said anything, condemn either of the political actors, neither his deputy or the speaker. No one has been answered, the President is so silent. You could think he was hiding beneath a rock or try to get to Addis Ababa. Because, he is not heard from. Even the fishes speaks more of the recent acts in Mogadishu than him, I am sure Nemo has some answers for Farmajo.

Another one, who usually challenges the political landscape and acts like a local kingpin, is United Nations Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating. I was expecting to blaze all guns and spiteful chants of different types. As he sometimes at international affairs and even at forums are more viable than heads of the Federal Government of Somalia. Therefore, in an affair like this, he might should have taken more charge. Since he likes the spotlight and looks like he matters in Somalian questions.

With the AMISOM actions, they clearly used the status of the 11 Point of their mandate: “To provide and assist, as appropriate, protection to the Somali authorities to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure” (AMISOM – ‘AMISOM Mandate’). So the Parliament can be seen as part of Somali authorities and key infrastructure. Some call the acts today a redeployment and not a takeover. But after yesterday, it seems like an act to show their mandate to the people.

Since the Special Guards came yesterday, we can wonder how this will evolve, how the different fractions will behave and how the next few days will be. Since the PM has used the army for his personnel gain, while questions of others non-action shows their true face. It should be expected that the President acts and also address his closest Deputy, instead he has left him go of the hook. He could also have addressed the Speaker to clear the air. Instead, nothing has happen and the transpired affair shows.

The ending of a political career can show the weakest links, can show how they act under stress. The PM goes to use soldiers and use of the army to settle his affairs with men who wants him away. The Speaker tries to use protocol and find out if he is allowed to do the same. However, the one with the guns stops all activity, but he loses face, because they know it was wrong behavior and the world knows it.

PM Kheire has flipped has cards, but he doesn’t have a full-house, not even a straight flush, he should have wished he had a royal flush, but he didn’t. We could wish the PM had bluffed, but he didn’t stack the deck, he just went into with a bad hand. The risked all with all-in without knowing the consequences. We will see if he wins, but it will not be because of brilliant tactics, because it hasn’t been.

AMISOM has acted, but the tale of the Lower House of the Parliament is not over and the ‘No Confidence’ for either the Speaker and PM will come up again. But the one that has lost face is the PM. Who has misused his position and put himself in the line of fire, because of either arrogance or fear for his position. Peace.

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