Ethiopia: Possible Ways Forward – “New State of Emergency VS National Reconciliation”

There is expected to be conflicting views and different ones, since there are many people and groups who feels left out. That is especially expected since the total control of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) are well-known. So the Central Government and the Addis Ababa has used all sort of tricks of oppression against the Oromo and Amhara regions. This has been done during the years of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, that is well-known, not that he had the power or be the mouthpiece of the oppression. So we can expect that the next few days and weeks will be rocky. There is talk by Addis Standard that there is a new order of State of Emergency in the works. Last time it created curfew and stopped most of all movement in the regions. It was a real draconian law in 2016 and it really showed the levels of oppression possible, as the arrests and detaining of opposition persisted. Even as several high-ranking individuals are released, there are still thousands of political prisoners who are kept by the government.

Therefore, these ideas that are out from Tigrai and Jawar, are important. Take a look.

The idea of TPLF:

The federal government keeps doing the same thing, putting out fire following the ruinous movements. The government never took any proactive actions to prevent these devastating actions from happening. When the state of emergency was in place the country was becoming peaceful, then the government lifted the state of emergency prematurely and we are back to square one. If the government is serious about maintaining peace and security in Ethiopia, they should reinstate the state of emergency throughout the country for three years. Meanwhile they should work to address all the issues raised by citizens and implement the so called deep renewal ideas announced after the meeting” (Tigrai Online, 2018).

The President’s view:

Short-note on Roadmap for Transition in Ethiopia

– Appoint Lemma Megersa Chairman of EPRDF and ( acting) PM immediately – Lemma should start immediately, I mean within days, negotiation with opposition groups i to establish agreeable roadmap and timetable towards election. While negotiation could take place behind close doors, regular updates should be given to public to boost moral and avoid further bloodshed. The roadmap and time table should include ways of bringing about national reconciliation and developing rules of the game for free, fair and competitive election. In this process avoid dealing with the usual fake opposition, religious and cultural leaders. Work with real and independent leaders with authentic support in their constituency. This negotiation and roadmap paving should be done alongside taking positive action that builds public confidence on seriousness of the process such us releasing all political prisoners. – This crisis presents with great opportunity and greater danger. While maintaining pressure on the regime every one of us in the public should exercise maximum constraint in our approach not to blow this thing up” (Jawar Mohammed, 15.02.2018).

I will say that Tigrai seems like a defense and apologetic for the dictatorship. They are more thinking of their values, than seeing the suffering of the regions they are occupying. That is an occupation when you send in the army and Aghazi squad to assassinate demonstrators and also try to kill the demonstrations. They haven’t been able to it, when the Oromo and Amhara opposition groups has gone together to silence their regions and put up roadblocks. That has hurt the economy and also been able to block the delivery of produce and products to Addis Ababa and Tigray.

Therefore, the Tigray page is really in defense mode, while Jawar who is the President. Shows more character and wish for change. The vitality of if the EPRDF and TPLF are putting forward a puppet Prime Minister and also a State of Emergency. Expect nationwide demonstrations. Expect that the people will access it as final blow to their acts impunity and injustice towards them.

The TPLF and EPRDF are really showing their blatant misunderstanding of the people, if they are trying to force themselves again. Like they did with the previous State of Emergency. If you think that will make it better, meaning that you are earning fortunes on the state paranoia and the total control of the public. The government who owns the people and they just have to submit to the orders of the state. That is how the Ethiopian government and Central Regime has acted for ages. Therefore, people has grown tired of that and the little group owning it all.

Let it be known, that it matters that Bekele Gerba and all the other big names who was freed this week after years in prison after fraudulent charges made by the state. That Jawar speaks of Lemma Mergesha can be different look, but will it be enough? I don’t know, but there been also speculated about Demeke Mekonnen Hassen and Michael-Gerbe Debretson, especially Demeke that he could be the next PM. That is since he is the Deputy today and if the TPLF would pick him. Then its a sign of another stooge, another mouthpiece and not strong leader to embrace all parts of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

I am not sure, but if the TPLF and EPRDF are putting forward a State of Emergency and appointing a puppet. Know that the shutdowns, the demonstrations will escalate and re-arresting the big-names will fire the people more up. Jawar and Gerba will ignite the Oromia even more, the Amhara will be a blaze. The Tigray will regret doing it, since they will shoot themselves in the foot. Instead of trying to fix the troubles they have created and the lingering injustice they have made.

The state can act wise, but also foolish. Their next move will be revealing. If they will listen to the minds of Jawar and try to reconcile… if they listen to Tigray, the state and the TPLF will loose it all. So we have to see if they are trying to go draconian or if they will try to give way for the demonstrators and actually listening to the people. Peace.

Reference:

Tigrai Online – ‘EPRDF has no choice but to declare state of emergency in Ethiopia’ (14.02.2018) link: http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/ethiopia-going-downhill.html

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