MinBane

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Brexit: Lords Report shows dire consequences of a “No Deal”!

If you ever will believe the narrative of the Conservative Party and the leadership around Theresa May, Boris Johnson and David Davis. Then you might believe there will be no consequences if the United Kingdom leave the European Union without any agreement. That means all the previous ones will cease and the third state of United Kingdom. Will loose all direct connections and also hurt all sort of movements between UK and European Member States and the Schengen Countries. This will hurt businesses, exports and also direct movement between UK and the EU. I will take the quotes that are showing the most concern from the House of Lords. The words from there is not my own, but from the Lords themselves and what they have collected. Take a look!

The Loan Market Association pointed out that the loss of the Capital Requirements Directive passport would have a major impact on lending and loan market activities conducted by banks. A sudden withdrawal of passporting rights could affect both the enforceability of existing loan agreements and the ability and willingness by UK-based lenders to enter into future agreements” (…) “Lloyd’s predicted that the transfer of personal data from the EU to the UK would also be more difficult for UK firms doing business in the EEA. London based firms would therefore have to establish EEA subsidiaries or cease to write EEA insurance” (House of Lords, P: 11, 2017).

The Fresh Produce Consortium noted that the Port of Dover handled 600 lorries per day transporting fresh produce. In 2016, the UK imported 3 million tonnes of fresh produce from other EU Member States. Many suppliers dealing solely in EU imports have no experience of meeting customs requirements, and registration as an Authorised Economic Operator would not be feasible for most small importers” (…) “The British Retail Consortium warned that the average tariff on food products imported from the EU would be 22%, with tariffs on Irish cheddar of 44% and on beef of 40%. Its research pointed to potential rises in the price of cheese in the order of 6–32%, on tomatoes of 9–18%, and on beef of 5–29%. Nontariff barriers would be burdensome in relation to customs checks, and health or veterinary checks stemming from sanitary and phytosanitary requirements” (House of Lords, P: 12, 2017).

The Institute for Government noted that, in order to prepare the border for ‘no deal’, change would be needed across 30 Government departments and public bodies, as well as more than 100 local authority organisations. Private sector port operators, freight forwarders and shipping lines would need to adapt

their infrastructure, paperwork and logistics. France, The Netherlands and Ireland would also need to plan for disruption at their ports. Operation Stack demonstrated how delays at Calais have a knock-on effect in Dover” (…) “The BRC pointed out that up to 180,000 UK companies would be drawn into customs declarations for the first time. Companies would have to operate new excise and VAT systems for compliance purposes” (House of Lords, P: 14, 2017).

The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that there was no WTO ‘fail safe’ for the aviation sector: “The ultimate danger is that without a deal, flights from the UK and to the EU and other parts of the world will be grounded on exit day … And without an early deal—meaning clarity for airports, airlines and travellers as soon as possible in 2018—the uncertainty around what might happen will begin to weigh on the decision making of those considering travel.” (House of Lords, P: 15, 2017).

The Russell Group concluded that no deal would affect universities’ ability to deliver world-leading research and education. No deal on the rights of EU citizens to live, study and work in the UK could lead to a loss of talented researchers and technicians with specialist skills who could not be replaced easily by UK nationals. If the UK and EU did not secure an agreement on science and research collaboration, UK institutions would cease to be eligible for Horizon 2020 funding on the day of exit. This would mean funding for existing projects would be withdrawn and researchers would immediately lose the ability to bid for this funding, with a detrimental impact on international competitiveness” (House of Lords, P: 16, 2017).

The Institute for Government observed that “if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it will not be possible to put in place any agreed arrangements to manage the border in Ireland. The UK could (possibly) decide to turn a blind eye. But the land border will represent the external frontier of the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union and it is hard to envisage how they would manage that without some sort of controls in place.” (House of Lords, P: 17, 2017).

A complete ‘no deal’ outcome would be deeply damaging for the UK. It would bring UK-EU cooperation on matters vital to the national interest, such as counter-terrorism, police, justice and security matters, nuclear safeguards, data exchange and aviation, to a sudden halt. It would place the status of UK nationals in the EU, and EU nationals in the UK, in jeopardy, and would necessarily lead to the imposition of controls at the Irish land border” (House of Lords, P: 44, 2017).

The Conservative Party after this report is released cannot say the “No Deal” is a good deal, since the effect on their own and the business community is damaging. The movement between the UK and the EU will be hurt. It is just a matter of how hard and how strained the sudden change between the UK and EU occur.

The words of the report is showing just brief reflections of how a non-deal would effect the UK. Therefore, the Tories should do whatever they can to let the negotiations go smooth and make sure the separation goes well for all parties. That the borders between Ireland and European Union is not put on hold, but actually have tariffs and have regulations for movement after they left. If it is for the movement of the people or imports/exports of services and products. We can clearly see by the information collected into the House of Lords Report. That the “No Deal”, will make certain industry suffer and make the transition ever more costly for business, which will also hurt the people who has to pay more for their services/products.

If the Conservative Party still pounds and says that a “No Deal” is still okay. Then they are not looking into or not telling the truth about the implications of that. The Tories better come clean try to work against the clock for the betterment of their citizens. They have a mission to secure their citizens and their future on the outside of EU. No matter what that is, the UK has to make sure the provisions and regulations are put in place, so people and businesses can work under new agreement between EU and the UK. Peace.

Reference:

House of Lords – European Union Committee – ‘Brexit: deal or no deal’ (07.12.2017)

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