South Sudan: Kiir not attending IGAD Extraordinary Summit on 12th, because of advice from close associates!
“President Kiir’s spokesman, Ateny Wek Ateny, said Kiir will not attend the IGAD summit. “He [President Kiir] will not attend the IGAD summit. The president has already sent a letter of apology through the minister in his office,” said Ateny when contacted by Radio Tamazuj” (…) “There are no reasons, but the president is attending to other things here in South Sudan. The team that will represent the president has not yet been formed,” he added” (Radio Tamazuj, 2017).
While several sources on the ground is saying that the negotiator and the one foreign leader legitimizing the National Dialogue of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) or the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Government (SPLM/A-IG). That are advised by the Uganda counterpart Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, which has even different parts of SPLM to discuss and find a common-ground for peace. That he would advice President Salva Kiir Mayardit wouldn’t surprise as Museveni has helped out in the past.
The other one giving advice on skipping the IGAD summit is the First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng Gai, who has also said he shouldn’t attend. This means that the core problems of South Sudan would be discussed without any key leadership of the conflict at the 12th June 2017 in Addis Ababa. This would mean their decisions in Ethiopia would be outsiders looking in. As the SPLM-IO or other rebels wouldn’t be part of it, neither would the SPLM/A-IG. That means the two warlords and counterparts in the conflict would not be parts of it.
While most likely one of the one giving advice and being there to direct the talks are President Museveni, who will come with all sorts amendments and insights to secure that Kiir stays in power. That is the most likely opportunity, as the SPLM/A-IG will be in conflict with the rest of the IGAD over the grand-issues, as they will feel the fire and feel instructed to act by foreign powers.
Therefore the words of prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba wrote a piece called: “What do we expect of the IGAD Summit”, which he wrote on the 5th June 2017: “What then is new in the situation of South Sudan necessitating IGAD summit? Recently, Dr. Riek Machar has a rare opportunity to address, in a video teleconference, the members of the UN Security Council. This drew the wrath of the government of South Sudan in the person of Taban Deng Gai, the de factor Kiir’s first vice president. This UN Security Council’s gesture is welcome. However, it alone could not have triggered the regional reaction in form of a summit. The regime’s arrogant stubbornness and lack of concern for the deteriorating social, economic and political crisis seem to be paying off. The Archbishop Tutu Fellows of the African Leadership Institute on 25 May 2017 wrote to the IGAD Plus leaders urging them to act. A visiting US Senator threatened to stop US aid to South Sudan until the government stopped the war. These political developments could have freaked the regional leaders’ conscience to prompt a summit” (…) “A dilemma confronts the IGAD Summit. Whether to order a new political process to resolve the conflict or resuscitate ARCISS. Both options require the presence and participation of Dr. Riek Machar, the SPLM/A (IO). This puts the regional leaders in an awkward situation with President Salva Kiir and President Yuweri Museveni, who swore to prevent Dr. Riek Machar becoming leader of the Republic of South Sudan. In order to save face and avoid commitment to another political process or the resuscitation of ARCISS, President Salva Kiir might delegate Taban Deng Gai, who definitely and for obvious reasons will put up a strong resistance to both options. Taban Deng is determined to keep Dr. Riek Machar away from the region. In this President Museveni ensures him the absolute support. This will bring the summit to a dead end” (Prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba, 05.06.2017).
So if President Museveni and FVP Deng Gai advised President Kiir to not attend, because the dilemma of not only FVP Deng Gai role, but also the weakness of keeping Dr. Riek Machar away from South Sudan. With this the stalemate will continue as the SPLM/A-IG are continuing their skirmishes and the battles that continue to destroy the core republic, like agriculture and living conditions, as the refugees are fleeing to Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo and in Uganda.
More will come, but certainly Museveni is really interfering in the crisis in the Republic in a big-way, when he wants his friend to have his power and his mates around. Peace.
Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan’s Kiir declines to attend IGAD summit’ (08.06.2017) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudan-s-kiir-declines-to-attend-igad-summit