Opinion: President Museveni is the wrong man for the job, he is not suited to mediate in South Sudan!
“I have been allowed by President Salva Kiir to mediate the warring factions in South Sudan. I will use the IGAD monitoring report and work with the IGAD chairman, Ethiopias’ Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn to see that those who abuse the ceasefire are talked to,” the President said in a one to one meeting with Mr. Guterres at the sidelines of the International Conference on Somalia at Lancaster House in London” (Okello, 2017)
There are no possible good ending, even as the hyper-inflation marked with the Kenyan Central Bank (KCB) leaving South Sudan. The longstanding conflict and the ruin it has created, the million refugees, hundred thousands in refugee settlements and land in Northern Uganda. Therefore, the Ugandan Republic and the National Resistance Movement are involved in the conflict, even if they doesn’t have brigades on the ground.
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has sent in the past Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) to sort out the issues of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army (SPLM/A). These was known and done without any international acceptance and made sure to stop the rebels under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar and the Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army In-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).
There been reports during this year that the UPDF have helped out with arms export to the SPLA and also helping with operations in Aboko and Bieh State to get technical assistance and also made sure they could use chemical warfare in state. This happen in mid-April 2017, not so long ago. The UPDF involvement is in clear violation and also supporting the government in war-crimes. This have been again paid secret agreements between President Kiir and President Museveni.
That these too men knows each other and has traded is well-known. President Museveni has been helping the cause of SPLM/A for so long, therefore, for some of us it was special when President Omar Al-Bashir showed up last May 2016 at his inauguration. Because President Bashir knows that Museveni helped the SPLM/A and has done for long while. This because President Museveni wants influence and also earn on arms export to the Republic.
With this knowledge, that he is partial and collaborating closely with the Kiir Government and SPLM/A. How will he impartial and be able to fix the amends, try to mediate and understand all the rebellions in South Sudan? The biggest is still SPLM/A-IO, but the others National Salvation Front (NSF) and National Democratic Movement (NDM) has been established during the recent year. There are others as well, both leaders leaving the SPLM/A-IO and SPLM/A. Therefore, the status and complex context are evident.
There illicit crimes appearing as civilians are fleeing, the man-made famine and loss of lives. The lacking structures and trust in the central government, combined with more guns and bullets, than healthy chickens. Therefore, this is land of warlords and not of peacemakers. The land where it easier to pick up the rifle, than discussing the issues and negotiations. The latest deal went down the drain in a massive attack on Juba and a fleeing Dr. Riek Machar to Democratic Republic of Congo, and later in exile in South Africa. There is also a base and important station of SPLM/A-IO in Nairobi, Kenya. As the Kenyan are also involved in the UNMISS mission in South Sudan.
This complex and condition of the state are not only fragile, but hold in the hands of Kiir. President Kiir who is known for getting help and buying support by President Museveni and his UPDF. So why should someone who hands over guns and technical arms to SPLM/A try to negotiate with all of the partners in the crisis? The supplier of the government and trading partner suddenly become friendly to all of the actors inside South Sudan?
I don’t have faith in the motives or initiative from President Museveni, he will together with President Kiir. Find ways of getting the rebels inside corridors or inside valleys where he can blast them into oblivion. He will find the weakness of the enemies of the President Kiir and then use the tools to deceive and try to seem peaceful, but that will back-fire with golden attack that will destroy them. That is what Museveni has done in the past. He first talks, than finds it and than uses the positions to gain more control.
If the bilateral talks between United Nations Security General Antonio Guterres will certify President Museveni to do the peace talk. Than he is naive or trying to forge relations so he looks wise. Neither, has others, if they want Museveni to really help out. Museveni only helps out if he can earn, get money and huge profits on the crisis. He will also use the South Sudanese refugees as pawns to get more donor money to the government. Not really help them out, they are needed pawns for the failing economy in Uganda.
President Museveni shouldn’t be considered or play parts of the negotiation and peace-talks in South Sudan. He is already invested and has been invested in the SPLM/A agenda as he wants the loyalty of President Kiir. In the regard, the international community should look for someone like Kofi Annan or even Thabo Mbeki, to try their magic wand to fix the crisis. President Museveni isn’t fit or the right man. He is only the right man if we want President Salva Kiir Mayardit to be armed to his teeth and annihilate the rebels. Peace.
Okello, Dickens H. – ‘Museveni to Mediate South Sudan Conflict; Mobilises $2bn for Refugees’ (12.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/museveni-to-mediate-south-sudan-conflict-mobilises-2bn-for-refugees/