Opinion: The Kabila Government will use all excuses in the book to postpone the next Presidential elections; because the elite and Kabila fear for losing it all!
Even if the stars stop to rotate around the planet earth, still there will be another excuse for Joseph Kabila to continue to be the Executive of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Kabilists will defend him even as his FARDC kills civilians, that the M23 are returning into the North Kivu or even as ADF-NALU are doing their thing to. There will be all sort of excuses like the recent ones!
“Budget Minister Pierre Kangudia said the cost of organising the poll, which was said to be $1.8bn (£1.5bn), was too expensive. Last year the government and the opposition agreed that new elections would be held by the end of 2017. President Joseph Kabila’s final mandate ran out in November 2016” (BBC News, 2017).
So it isn’t just the sudden violence in Kasai-Oriental, Nord-Kivu or other province that creates issues, there are also the budget and fiscal issues. Therefore, you know that with a giant nation, it comes with great cost to hold an election. So the state needs sufficient fiscal power and funds to hold an election. That should be possible to save up to during the recent term under President Kabila, which knew clearly that his term was over in November 2016. Still, he is sitting in power and suspended the election to hold him in power. So the use of lacking funds together with the direct aid for elections in 2016 came also from United Kingdom and other nations, so that the DRC could hold a Presidential election. Still, the Kabila government saw no reason to hold it last year.
Therefore they had to explain it further:
“The Congolese election commission said in October 2016 that it would need until the end of July 2017 to update its voter register in the massive country, which has a population of almost 80 million, according to the World Bank. The commission said that elections would take another 504 days to organize after that, suggesting a vote would not be held until at least 2018” (…) “Kabila has been in power in Congo since 2001, when his father and predecessor as president, Laurent-Desire Kabila, was assassinated. Presidents are allowed to serve a maximum of two consecutive terms in Congo, which has never experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960” (Gaffey, 2017).
So it isn’t just now the funds, it’s also apparent the amount of people and registration of them. The state doesn’t have time or ability to know, they could do so for the first two terms of Kabila, when he was legitimately elected after he was selected in 2001, but now he is out of time and needs to buy all the time of the world. Since he worries about his fate when leaves office. The President Kabila fears for the wealth and his businesses, as well as the business of his sister and the rest of his elite. Kabila fears for losing out on the mining business and the agreements made while he was president. He and his elite could lose them or get caught out of the loop, as a new President and his regime might even suspend these agreements as they are not paying the sufficient taxes or even being transparent enough.
So Kabila wants to buy all the time possible, use all sort of tricks out of his sleeve, even sell his wife to a public scandal if he has too. Already killing innocent and creating chaos to sufficiently use force and say that the regions needs peace before the state can hold an election. As the MONUSCO and the FARDC cannot contain all these rebels and militants that spring up when the President needs them. As President Kabila could create peace when he got into power, he wants to be able to show that so you know you need him!
Kabila regime will not go silent and not go easy, there are too much money at stake and too much to lose. Just like the Wall Street will not accept to be totally controlled or regulated, the same is with these autocratic leaders like Kabila. Kabila sees no reason to disclose his companies or his wealth, neither the connections he has with the export industries. Therefore he fears the undisclosed monies and estates might show his embezzlement and corrupt behaviour in power. Surely, he will inter-connected in ways that is similar in other weaker institutional states like Angola or others, where the Executive and Elite has direct-cut the deals and therefore has skimmed of the deals with international businesses.
So now that the term has ended and the gig is up, Kabila and his comrades’ fears for their live, their pocket and the will of the people, if it fails the house-of-cards could vanish. That is painful and the truth, as the trusts and the companies could get frozen accounts and the business agreements could be broken for breach of lawful activity. Therefore the Kabila regime doesn’t want their accounts to be ransacked and their wealth to be lost. They have been eaten for over a decade and do not want to lose the gravy-train.
Kabila knows all of this and therefore use all methods and all of ways to politically keep his executive position and mandate that he has had. Therefore Kabila uses all tactics and all reasoning to keep the election out of his way and the Republic’s way. Because of the risk of losing his riches and spoils, the nation and republic might be poor, but he is wealthier than GOD. Therefore Kabila doesn’t want to looked into or show the records of transactions to the public.
Kabila fears this and his elite around him don’t want him to fall, because their future and their riches is also at stake. Therefore they accept his misuse of funds and army to silence opposition. That Kabila detain and sends opposition into exile. He does it to silence the ones that show the truth of the Kabila regime. Kabila cannot accept the truth, because the truth will reveal deals and agreements that will throw shades into mixed state regulations and the Kabila elite, which we know is there but to an extent that we never thought was possible.
If he had been a peaceful and honest President, he wouldn’t fear to step down and give the mantle to the next candidate. President Kabila would not use this ways to get rid of the possibility for another election if they weren’t afraid of the consequences of what is ahead. The Consequence of what can happen with him and his estates. Certainly the uncertain attitude and fortitude to stay, proves that there is too much that the current leadership doesn’t want to show the citizens, the republic and the world. Peace.
BBC News – ‘DR Congo election: ‘We cannot afford $1.8bn cost’, says minister’ (16.02.2017) link: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38988632
Gaffey, Conor – ‘CONGO: ELECTIONS IN 2017 ARE TOO EXPENSIVE, SAYS BUDGET MINISTER’ (16.02.2017) link: http://europe.newsweek.com/congo-elections-2017-too-expensive-says-budget-minister-557461?rm=eu