Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.
That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.
Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.
So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.
A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.
Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.
The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!
So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.
So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.