MinBane

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South Sudan: Machar’s War-Cry proves that the SPLM/A-IO making ready for a new Civil-War against SPLM/A or Kiir Government!

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“We have been driven back to the bush,” James Gadet, a spokesman for Machar, told the AP on Saturday in a call from Nairobi, Kenya” (New Wires, 2016)

This is serious, this is sad and this is dangerous. The fleeing rebel have gone back to his safe haven in Khartoum where he we’re back-in-the-day when the SPLM/SPLA we’re fighting for liberation from the Khartoum government and free the South Sudan republic. So we’re full-circle with that.

Dr. Riek Machar just came back in late April 2016 and not before long. He wouldn’t return if he didn’t get his military arm into Juba. As much as the Peace Agreement we’re supposed to get the SPLA-IO into the SPLA or the ordinary army; there seemed to be no intention by either party to really make that happening. Just as the TGoNU government we’re fixed together with enough ministerial positions for both parties. So the parties we’re starting of the parliamentary actions. So that the government we’re not only supposed to follow Presidential Decree, but with parliamentary procedures as agreed upon in the Peace Agreement.

Dr. Riek Machar we’re fleeing after the Skirmishes in July where the returned fights between Gen. Salva Kiir’s bodyguards and the soldiers of Dr. Riek Machar.

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This was mentioned of the skirmishes before Riek Machar fled the country:

“War started in South Sudan at 5:10pm and all Riek Machiar’s bodyguards killed.As we speak both Salva and Riek are held up at statehouse in Juba and general Paul Malong whos the chief of staff has deployed tanks surrounding statehouse and he’s believed that he’s the one that incited Salva’s bodyguards to kill all Riek’s bodyguards and even the mad Paul Malong ordered his soldiers to open fire at American CIA vehicle” (Taifa Takatifu-News, Opinon and Analysis, 08.07.2016).

After this one and the return of skirmishes in Juba, the battles continued in Wau in Western Bahr El Ghazal and the SPLA-IO closed the Kaya Road in Yei at the Morobo County. There we’re also battles between the armies in the Central Equatoria.

So when the battles between SPLM/A-IO and the SPLM/A continued the rebel leader Dr. Riek Machar fled the country. These happen while the battles happen in Juba and the rest of the county. So the place where he where fled we’re questioned.

Until MONUSCO spelt the beans:

On 17 August, at the request of the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and acting on humanitarian grounds, the UN Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) extracted the former Vice-President of South Sudan, Mr. Riek Machar, his wife and son along with 10 aides from a location inside the Garamba National Park, Haut Uélé province, in the north east of the DRC. Mr Machar had crossed into the DRC from South Sudan, accompanied by several hundred people, including armed elements and civilians” (…) “In total MONUSCO has handed over 117 individuals, including Riek Machar, his wife and son to the DRC authorities. Weapons have been removed from all those transported by MONUSCO” (MONUSCO, 2016).

Just as all this was happening the TGoNU under the leadership of President Salva Kiir went on and asked for Dr. Riek Machar to come back, but not for indefinite time. With that in mind the TGoNU appointed Gen. Taban Deng Gai to the First Vice-President and take the position of Machar. This has been over time established as the return of Machar we’re more unlikely. Even a battalion of 6000 soldiers deflected from SPLM/A-IO to the Juba Government. While the Maribor Garang de Maribor resigned from his ministerial post and turned back to Machar. There been deflection both ways and also different reasons for why people does so.

By late August the Khartoum government we’re saying they accepted the fleeing rebel into their capital as he was healing from wounds and we’re getting recuperating there in safety. Just in the same days the FVP Taban Deng Gai where in the Sudan Capital discussing the peace-agreement between the nations in bilateral talks while the South Sudanese Authorities we’re disappointed in the Sudanese for letting him stay there.

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The new FVP Taban Deng said this in an interview 22. August in Khartoum:

Riek Machar did not comply with my advice when he arrived Juba. After he was sworn in, he chose to locate behind Jebel Kujur and continued the same practices that led to the outbreak of the last war in 2013. He is not aware of the things that might anger and please the president, which could influence the relationship between them. Choosing this isolated place after coming back sent the wrong message, suggesting that he was preparing a parallel army” (…) “We did not try to assassinate Riek. If I wanted to do so, I would have withdrawn his guards. He moved with a great force, which led to a clash between the parties. In my opinion, Riek planned to kill Salva Kiir because he moves with great guard force and Salva Kiir wanted to kill him. All his guards died and Salva Kiir assumed responsibility for returning Riek to his house and was concerned with this matter. He asked an officer named Marial to give him a ride to his house and told him literally, “I do not want Riek to be hurt” (…) “Angelina’s ambition to be the first lady led him to this situation. Machar has not looked back since 1991, when many people were killed. In 1997, he signed an agreement with al-Bashir and was not able to implement it, which led to splitting the Nuer into small groups fighting each other. There are problems with Machar’s behaviour – he did not learn a lesson from the previous events, especially with regard to Angelina’s ambition. I am sure the events of July 7 and 8, upon which Machar left Juba, were planned by Angelina who gives orders and says she is the defence minister” (Yam, 2016).

So when news broke about the recent outburst and plans of the SPLM/A-IO in Khartoum and the war-cry from Riek Machar, we all should know there are giant possibility of these men to fight each other with armies to secure supremacy instead of dialogue as the IGAD-Plus extraordinary meetings seems to be as fruitful to peace as the former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mpaka lead Inclusive Inter-Burundian effort. Nearly pointless as the Generals and their battalions are ready to fight over the spoils while the soils is not tilled and 1 million citizens has fled the scene and the United Nations forces are not capable to keep calm in the PoC camps. There are too many disastrous outcomes of the conflict and to many people hurt by it. This also leads to loss of food production and weaken efforts to build institutions and facilities to serve the public. Those who earn on this the suppliers of army equipment like the Canadian firm selling War Trucks to the SPLA and the others who serve it with loyalty and earning huge profits.

This is what Riek Machar was saying:

““wage a popular armed resistance against the authoritarian and racist regime of President Salva Kiir.” (News Wires, 2016).

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If this wish get into the hands of the soldiers and they listen to Dr. Riek Machar than there are more bloodshed awaiting with the ones who just lost their lives recently. Not only with the current news of possible draught and loss of food production; has this resulted into hunger and civil war in republic? This has been a battle between the two leaders who wants to run the cash-strapped nation who has been blessed once in a while by the Troika, U.S., UK and Norway. FAO has told about possible hunger and less farming as the fleeing citizens and the ones inside camps instead of having their own farming. They fled because of army battles and insecurity. This reacts into the unstable yields and safety. That with the war-cry of yesterday doesn’t make the outcome of food security any better. With the amount of South Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda; the Adjumani refugee camps has grown substantially over the recent months. This is happening while the international community is not pledging enough funds for the men and woman who has left everything behind because of the battle to run South Sudan continues.

The War-Cry yesterday is not bringing hope of dialogue as these men are continuing to show that it is easier to grab the AK-47 or order tanks than speaking of process and making institutions. The War-Cry of Dr. Riek Machar against President Salva Kiir shows the wish of power by the opposition and the extent he will go to take it. This is happening as the return are just briefly months since it happen and the Swearing into be a part of the TGoNU. So the time and work for the Peace Agreement must be seemed as a sham deal by either party. The works of the IGAD and Troika have been a dodged even before the ink got dry.

So now in September, not far away from April; we are returning to 2013 and new rounds of ammunition as the uncertainty of the battalions, armies and loyalties. The friction between who is SPLM/A together with who is SPLM/A-IO?

Together with the resurgence of the SPLM-N in Sudan in the Darfur conflict that lingers on without any kind of stop from rebels and government forces. The peace in the region is continuing to be a question of utopia and not a reality. The Generals cannot talk and apparently only shoot at each other.

This is not the end of battle between Kiir and Machar, they will not stop apparently to one flees or dies. They use force to silence each other. The dialogue and Peace Agreement are not worthy of the paper and time spent on making it. As the months from when it was conceived, to when it was started implemented and now to its end as the SPLM/A-IO is dismantling it with a cry of bush-war and calling counterparts a rogue regime. While the FVP Taban Deng Gai claims the wife of Machar is the one behind the recent skirmishes in Juba.

There the fickle situation turns bloody quickly already in 31st July I wrote “Worrying signs of a new Civil-War in South Sudan”. Now the words of wishing to create it come from Khartoum by Dr. Riek Machar. None of us should accept this as there are already to many people who has suffered in this power struggle. There are too many who has fled their homestead in fear of rebels and government soldiers taking advantage of the situation. The burning of homes, fields and killings of neighbors will continue with the war-cry of Machar. The ones who believes he wouldn’t act upon it, has not followed the man’s wish for power by any means. As much as Salva Kiir Mayardit has no plans to step down from the Presidency.

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What we can now that the words and actions of July, the Ethiopians saying their borders are closing for Machar, that the little friends in diaspora is dwindling for SPLM/A-IO while the government of Kiir will have just defense war against Machar. While the U.S. might discuss a Arms Embargo, but to what effect it will have as long as Kiir has loyal support from President Yoweri Museveni in Uganda as long as he pays. Museveni has friends from Moscow to Washington if he needs arms equipment and training. Something Museveni has no problem to deliver as long as the payments are happening without the Parliament or the Central Government in Kampala really knows.

Machar doesn’t have that suction unless Omar Al-Bashir still wants to align himself with him as he let him be there to “heal”. What we can now that the peaceful nation building is getting further and further away as the heads are colliding in the bush and in words. We could hope for another outcome, but the Generals stay Generals and their knowledge of guns and ambush is greater than of process and procedure. That is the proof of the acts of these men and lost are the potential state-building of youngest nation in the world. Peace.

Reference:

News Wires – ‘South Sudan rebel chief urges armed resistance against government’ (24.09.2016) link: http://www.france24.com/en/20160924-south-sudan-rebel-chief-riek-machar-kiir-urges-armed-resistance-against-government?ref=tw_i

MONUSCO – ‘MONUSCO EXTRACTED HUNDREDS OF INDIVIDUALS FROM THE GARAMBA NATIONAL PARK ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS’ (11.09.2016) link: http://monusco.unmissions.org/en/monusco-extracted-hundreds-individuals-garamba-national-park-humanitarian-grounds

Yam, Bel – ‘Angelina Teny caused the war in South Sudan, says Taban Deng’ (04.09.2016) – Link: http://welyam.com/news/aangelina-teny-caused-the-war-in-south-sudan-says-taban-deng/#sthash.qSI7AW1u.dpuf

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