East Africa: “Persistent conflict in the region continues to contribute to high levels of needs” (31.08.2016)
Persistent conflict in the region continues to contribute to high levels of needs
- The resurgence of conflict in Juba in early July is likely to worsen already precarious food insecurity for many. Persistent conflict in South Sudan has disrupted livelihoods, access to humanitarian assistance and markets, particularly in Greater Bahr el Ghazal and Greater Upper Nile, leading to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. It is expected some households in the north of Northern Bahr el Ghazal are already facing extreme food shortages and are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).1
- A major food security emergency is ongoing in Yemen, caused by conflict-related disruptions to household livelihoods. Across the western half of the country, households continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3 or 3!) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes. Due to a rapidly evolving political and security situation, including the recent suspension of peace talks and the ongoing banking crisis, future food security outcomes are uncertain.
- Continuing conflict and displacement have sustained high levels of displacement in the region. About 1.61 million people are displaced internally in South Sudan, and over 700,000 have crossed into Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, and Kenya. An estimated 271,042 people are displaced from Burundi, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania. There are approximately 178,280 refugees from Yemen in Djibouti, Somalia and the Gulf States, with 2.4 million people displaced internally.
- Large areas require emergency food assistance through September in Ethiopia. The 2015 El Niño-induced drought resulted in severe crop losses, massive livestock deaths, and eroded labor opportunities. While Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) is likely through September, the Meher harvest in October is expected to contribute to improving food availability. However, food insecurity could increase in southern and southeastern pastoral areas should the anticipated La Niña bring below-average precipitation in late 2017.
- The high likelihood of a La Niña later in 2017 would be expected to bring below-average rainfall across the south of the Horn of Africa between October and December, limiting agricultural production and pastoral resource availability. Above-average staple food prices and reduced household food access could also be expected.