Rainfall across Kenya has been light and erratic, but it is expected the March to May long rains will be fully established by early April and an ontime harvest is still likely. The long rains are forecast to be near average in cumulative amount, partially influenced by the ongoing El Niño.
Household food security is expected to improve slightly in most pastoral areas, starting in April, as the long rains restore pasture and water resources. Households are migrating their livestock back to homesteads at this time, resulting in increased household milk consumption and providing income from the sale of livestock products. Despite slight improvements in food security conditions, the majority of pastoral households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Household food security in marginal agricultural areas is likely to remain stable, supported by the previous aboveaverage short rains harvest. Agricultural wage labor is available at typical levels, with land preparation ongoing and dry planting in some areas. Most households will remain in None (IPC Phase 1) through at least June when the green harvest will be available.